“两化”深度融合对产业结构调整的影响——基于系统建模和政策仿真的分析  

Effect of Deep Integration of Informatization and Industrialization on Industrial Restructuring:Based on System Modeling and Policy Simulation

作　　者：梁益琳[1,2] 张新[1] 李玲玲 LIANG Yi-lin;ZHANG Xin;LI Ling-ling(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan Shandong 250014,China;Institute of Small and Medium Enterprises,Shandong University,Jinan Shandong 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山东济南250014 [2]山东大学中小企业研究所,山东济南250100

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2022年第1期9-15,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(16AJY003);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(19DJJJ01)。

摘　　要：信息化和工业化深度融合如何驱动产业结构调整,是供给侧结构性改革中亟待探究的重要问题。文章从系统要素及其因果关系出发,阐释"两化"深度融合对产业结构调整的作用机理,并构建系统动力学模型进行动态仿真和政策干预分析。研究表明:"两化"深度融合对产业结构合理化和高级化有显著促进作用;实施产业、科技和财政政策有助于促进"两化"深度融合及产业结构发展,但盲目提升政策强度会导致其边际效益减弱;不同政策的实施效果存在差异,科技政策对产业结构合理化的影响最为明显。"两化"深度融合对产业结构调整的推动效应仍有很大提升空间,应根据发展阶段和地区差异,形成适度、持续和异质性的政策措施。How the deep integration of informatization and industrialization affects industrial restructuring is an important problem in the supply-side structural reform.Based on the system elements and their causality,this paper explains the mechanism of the deep integration of informatization and industrialization on the adjustment of industrial structure,and then constructs the system dynamics model for dynamic simulation and policy intervention analysis.The result shows that deep integration of informatization and industrialization can significantly promotethe rationalization and optimization of industrial structure.Implementing industrial,technological and financial policies is helpful to promote deep integration of informatization and industrialization and the development of industrial structure,but blindly enhancing the intensity of policy implementation will lead to the weakening of its marginal benefits.The effects of different policies are different in which the impact of technological policies on the rationalization of industrial structure is the most obvious.There is still much room for deep integration of informatization and industrialization to promote industrial restructuring.Appropriate,sustained and heterogeneous policies should be formed according to the development stage and regional differences.

关 键 词：信息化和工业化深度融合 产业结构 政策优化 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]