基于PSR模型的中国粮食主产区农业生态安全评价及障碍因素诊断  

Agricultural Ecological Security Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Main Grain Producing Areas in China Based on PSR Model

作　　者：罗海平[1] 李卓雅 王佳铖 LUO Hai-ping;LI Zhuo-ya;WANG Jia-cheng(Research Center of Central China Economic and Social Development,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2022年第1期22-33,共12页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘双安全’目标下我国粮食主产区的生态脆弱性预警与防控研究”(21BJL079)。

摘　　要：农业生态安全作为中国粮食和生态“双安全”的重要组成部分,对实现社会可持续发展具有重要的战略意义。基于PSR模型建立农业生态安全评价指标体系,运用熵权法、综合指数法、泰尔指数对1998—2018年粮食主产区的农业生态安全进行评价,并结合障碍度模型对障碍因子进行诊断。研究表明:1998—2018年,粮食主产区农业生态安全水平呈显著上升态势,由较不安全等级向较安全等级转变,但总体仍处于较低水平;粮食主产区农业生态安全水平空间分异显著,区域发展不均衡,呈“南低北高”的空间格局;影响粮食主产区农业生态安全的主要障碍因子为化肥施用强度、农药施用强度、农膜施用强度、城镇化水平和复种指数,2018年障碍度分别为12.1%、8.2%、13.4%、17.9%、14.4%;从长远看,生态压力准则层对农业生态安全的阻碍作用持续增强,生态状态准则层和生态响应准则层对农业生态安全的阻碍作用持续减弱。在未来生态环境建设过程中,要强化农业生态环境保护监管,构建施肥、施药、施膜安全体系,切实改善农村生态环境。Agricultural ecological security,as an important part of China’s food and ecological“double security”,is of strategic significance to the realization of social sustainable development.The evaluation Index system of agricultural ecological security is established based on PSR model,and the level of agricultural ecological security in major grain-producing areas from 1998 to 2018 is evaluated by entropy weight method,comprehensive index method and Theil index,and obstacle factors are diagnosed by combining with obstacle degree model.The results show that,the level of agricultural ecological security in major grain-producing areas increased significantly from 1998 to 2018,and the level changed from unsafe to safe,but it is still at a low level.The pressure index(P)generally decreased first and then increased,and the state index(S)and response index(R)generally increased.The level of agricultural ecological security in major grain-producing areas shows significant spatial differentiation and unbalanced regional development,presenting a spatial pattern of“low in the south and high in the north”.From the provincial scale,the agricultural regional development of 13 major grain producing provinces(regions)is uneven,the ecological environment carrying capacity of Henan,Anhui and other places is insufficient,the ecosystem health of Jiangxi,Sichuan and other places is low,the ecosystem structure is not stable enough,and the comprehensive management ability of ecological environment in Hebei,Henan and Sichuan is low,which needs to be comprehensively improved.By 2018,one major grain producing region(Heilongjiang)is in a safe zone,eight regions(Inner Mongolia,Jilin,Liaoning,Hebei,Anhui,Shandong,Hubei and Jiangsu)are in a relatively safe zone,three regions(Henan,Hunan and Jiangxi)are in a critical safe zone and one region(Sichuan)is in a relatively unsafe zone.In 2018,according to the geographical location,the ranking of the comprehensive level of agricultural ecological security in the main grain producing areas from

关 键 词：PSR模型 粮食主产区 农业生态安全 障碍度模型 空间分异 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]