货币供应、汇率变动与对外贸易  

Money Supply,Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Foreign Trade

作　　者：赵乐新 彭刚[2] Zhao Lexin;Peng Gang(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310007,China;School of Statistics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,杭州310007 [2]西南财经大学统计学院,成都611130

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第1期136-140,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章通过构建包括货币供应、汇率、贸易变量在内的理论模型,利用TVP-VAR模型以我国2000年1月至2019年6月的统计数据实证检验了货币供应、汇率变动对我国总体贸易和分产品贸易的时变影响。同时,引入贸易政策不确定性指数,进一步分析了贸易环境对变量间作用效果的影响。研究发现:当人民币贬值时,我国总体贸易收支的变化轨迹呈"倒J曲线"而非传统的"J型曲线",货币供应增速变动对总体贸易仅存在短期影响,不具有持续性;而货币增速、汇率对不同类产品贸易收支具有差异性影响;同时,随着贸易政策不确性的加剧,货币增速、汇率变动对贸易收支的作用效果逐渐减弱。By constructing theoretical models including money supply,exchange rate and trade variables,this paper empirically tests the time-varying influence of money supply and exchange rate changes on China’s overall trade and classified-product trade with the statistical data from January 2000 to June 2019 by employing TVP-VAR model,and meanwhile,brings in the uncertainty index of trade policy to further analyze the influence of trade environment on the effects of variables.The study results are as below:When RMB depreciates,the change trajectory of China’s overall trade balance shows an inverted J-curve instead of a conventional J-curve,and the change of money supply growth rate only has a short-term impact on the overall trade.The impact of currency growth rate and exchange rate on trade balance of classified-products is heterogeneous.In addition,with the increase of trade policy uncertainty,the effect of money supply growth rate and exchange rate fluctuations on trade balance is correspondingly weakened.

关 键 词：对外贸易 货币供应 汇率 贸易政策不确定性 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济] F202