基于改进模糊综合评价法的区域大气环境脆弱性分析  

Vulnerability Analysis of Regional Atmospheric Environment Based on Improved Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：傅莉媛 孙丛婷 祝志川 FU Li-yuan;SUN Cong-ting;ZHU Zhi-chuan(School of Environment,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China;School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学环境学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第24期133-145,共13页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅重点攻关项目(LZD202004)。

摘　　要：基于"暴露性—敏感性—适应能力"框架,构建区域大气环境脆弱性评价指标体系,采取变异系数-G1法计算指标权重,利用模糊综合评价法和脆弱性指数法综合量化分析了辽宁省2000-2018年大气环境脆弱性及时间分布特征.研究结果表明:2000-2018年间,辽宁省大气环境脆弱性呈逐渐减弱趋势,但始终处于脆弱性偏强的状态.在2005-2007年和2012-2014年大气生态环境脆弱性明显增强,主要影响因素分别是暴露性和适应能力.绿色发展是降低辽宁省大气环境脆弱性的重要影响因素,对区域人与自然和谐发展产生重要影响.The study of atmospheric vulnerability can be used to directly reflect the problems of atmospheric environment on the earth and consequently can provide early warnings to raise awareness of atmospheric environmental protection.In this paper,a reasonable atmospheric environmental vulnerability assessment index system has been established on the basis of the "exposure-sensitivity-adaptability" framework,and the index weights were calculated by the coefficient of variation-G1 method.Furthermore,the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the vulnerability index method were used to quantitatively characterize the atmospheric environmental vulnerability in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2018.The study results show that green development acts as the most important factor which influences the atmospheric environmental vulnerability,indicating that secondary indicators in green development are reasonable and may be future adopted by the evaluation index systems for other regions.From 2000 to 2018,the atmospheric environment vulnerability in Liaoning Province exhibits a weakening trend,however,it still maintains a certain degree of vulnerability.It can be attributed to the substantial increase in energy consumption and the lack of reasonable control of the atmospheric environment with the rapid developments of both economics and sociality in China.Problems that induce atmospheric environment vulnerability have been discussed and a series of policy recommendations have been proposed based on these analyses.

关 键 词：大气环境脆弱性 模糊综合评价法 绿色发展 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]