多级财政支出的经济增长效应——基于地市和省的镶嵌分析  

The Effects of Multi-governmental Spending on Economic Growth:Multi-level Approach Based on Prefectural Cities Nested in Provinces in China

作　　者：熊若愚 吴俊培[1] Xiong Ruoyu;Wu Junpei

机构地区：[1]武汉大学财政金融研究中心

出　　处：《财政科学》2021年第12期51-65,共15页Fiscal Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“完善财政转移支付制度研究”(17BJY173)。

摘　　要：在多级财政管理体制当中,不同层级的辖区存在镶嵌关系。辖区的经济增长同时受到本辖区因素和上级辖区因素的影响,其中重要的因素之一是财政支出。本文构建了一个三层线性模型,将我国2012-2019年地市级数据和省级数据镶嵌,分析了地市级财政支出和省本级财政支出对地级市经济增长的影响,以及省本级财政支出如何作用于地市级财政支出和地级市经济增长的关系。总体来看,地市级财政支出和省本级财政支出均促进了地级市经济增长,但前者的效应更强;省本级财政支出还强化了地市级财政支出对地级市经济增长的正面效果。多方面的异质性检验显示,在面积较大、地形复杂、经济发展水平较低的省份,地市级财政支出的经济增长效应更强,省本级财政支出的效果有限;而在面积较小、地形简单、经济发展水平较高的省份,省本级财政支出的经济增长效应有明显的提升。本文认为,省以下的财政支出安排应当因地制宜,同时需要省以下财政收入安排的差异化。In a multi-governmental management system in China's Mainland, prefectural cities are nested in provinces. This means that both prefectural governmental spending and provincial spending could have potential and different effects on prefectural cities’ economic growth. We consider that both prefectural governmental spending and provincial spending directly apply to prefectural cities’ economic growth, and meanwhile provincial spending indirectly influence the relationship between prefectural governmental spending and prefectural cities’ economic growth. Methodologically, we construct a three hierarchy linear model which includes a trajectory of development over time to analyze three effects based on prefectural and provincial data in China's Mainland.Both prefectural spending and provincial spending have positive effects on prefectural cities’ economic growth,but former is obviously larger. Besides, provincial spending induces the effect of prefectural spending on prefectural cities’ economic growth more positive. Heterogeneities of three effects are obvious in regions with different land area, topography and economic development level. In jurisdictions of larger land area, more complicated topography, lower level development, prefectural spending has stronger effect than provincial spending. On the contrary, the effect of provincial spending is improved.

关 键 词：公共支出 多级财政支出 经济增长 多层线性模型 财政分权 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]