新冠疫情下东北三省财政经济运行态势及“十四五”财政收入预测  

The Economic Performance in the Three Northeast Provinces Under the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Forecast of the Fiscal Revenue During the "14th Five-year Plan" Period

作　　者：郭艳娇[1] 连家明[1] 解欣桐 Guo Yanjiao;Lian Jiaming;Xie Xintong

机构地区：[1]辽宁省财政科学研究所 [2]大连理工大学

出　　处：《财政科学》2021年第12期132-143,共12页Fiscal Science

基　　金：中国财政科学研究院、中国财政学会协作课题“新冠疫情对东北地区财政经济影响及对策研究”;国家社会科学基金项目“东北经济运行负向传导机理及政府策略选择研究”(19BJY220)的研究成果。

摘　　要：本文以新冠疫情下东北三省经济表现为切入点进行反思,认为即使不考虑新冠疫情影响,东北近几年经济发展水平也基本与2012年持平。在"十四五"时期开局之年,本文按照真实经济周期分析范式,创新性引入虚拟变量解决地方数据特性,预测了"十四五"时期东北三省的财政收入。结果显示,"十四五"时期东北三省财政收入年均增率在4%-6%之间。最后从"十四五"时期东北需要有新突破这一视角提出六个方面的财政政策建议。By rethinking profoundly the economic performance of the three Northeast provinces under the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper finds that the economic development level is nearly the same as that of 2012,even without considering the impact of COVID-19. According to the Real business cycle analysis paradigm, this paper forecasts the fiscal revenue of the three Northeastern provinces during the "14 th Five-year Plan" period by creatively introducing dummy variables to eliminate the effect of local data fraud. The results show that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of fiscal revenue in the three Northeastern provinces is between 4% and 6%. Finally, from the perspective of the need for a new breakthrough in three Northeast provinces during the "14th Five-year Plan" period, six fiscal policy suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 财政经济 “十四五”财政收入预测 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]