沿淮地区秋季连阴雨综合指数构建及其变化特征  

Construction of the Comprehensive Index of Continuous Rain and Its Variation Characteristics in Autumn Along Huaihe River

作　　者：朱公群 韩帮军[1] 段春锋[2] 欧娜音 Zhu Gongqun;Han Bangjun;Duan Chunfeng;Ou Nayin(Huainan Meteorological Office, Huainan 232001, China;Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;Harbin Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150028, China)

机构地区：[1]淮南市气象局,安徽淮南232001 [2]安徽省气候中心,安徽合肥230031 [3]哈尔滨市气象局,哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2022年第1期96-102,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：安徽省新技术集成项目(AHXJ201711)。

摘　　要：基于安徽省沿淮地区10个国家气象站1960-2019年观测资料、灾情资料和7种地方连阴雨监测指标,在评估7种地方指标适用性的基础上,采用加权综合指数法和线性趋势法,构建了沿淮地区秋季连阴雨综合指数,分析了时空变化特征。结果表明:江苏指标对沿淮地区连阴雨监测的适用性最好,连阴雨综合指数由连阴雨总日数、连阴雨总降水量线性组成,权重分别为0.8和0.2。按照综合指数,将连阴雨强度分成重度、中度、轻度3级,分级结果与灾情实况较吻合,重度连阴雨和中度连阴雨TS评分分别为100%、88.9%。秋季连阴雨在20世纪70年代到80年代前期及近10年发生频率高、强度大,尤其是2016年和2017年的连阴雨,强度居历史前2位。沿淮地区连阴雨年数东部和西部的多于中部的,重度连阴雨阜南的最多,五河的最少。Using the observation data of 10 national weather stations along the Huaihe River in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2019,disaster data and 7 local continuous rainfall monitoring indicators,and also based on the applicability of the 7 local indicators,the comprehensive index of autumn continuous rain in the region along the Huaihe River is constructed with the weighted comprehensive index method and linear trend method.Then the temporal and spatial characteristics of continuous rain are analyzed.The results show that the Jiangsu indicator has the best applicability for continuous rain along the Huaihe River.The comprehensive index of continuous rain is linearly composed of the total number of consecutive rainy days and the total precipitation,with weights of 0.8 and 0.2,respectively.According to the comprehensive index,the continuous rain intensity is divided into three levels:severe,moderate,and mild.The classification results are more consistent with the disaster situation.The TS scores for severe continuous rain and moderate continuous rain are 100%and 88.9%,respectively.The autumn continuous rain occurred frequently and intensified from the 1970s to the early 1980s and in the latest 10 years,especially in 2016 and 2017,ranking the top two in history.The number of consecutive rainy years along the Huaihe River is more in the east and west than in the central part of the region,with the most consecutive rainy years in Funan and the least in Wuhe.

关 键 词：沿淮地区 秋季连阴雨 综合指数 时空特征 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]