基于加权灰色关联度的城市轨道交通新线运营前安全风险评价方法  

A Pre-operational Safety Risks Evaluation Method of New Urban Rail Transit Lines Based on Weighted Grey Relational Degree

作　　者：李松峰 刘书浩[1] 冯旭杰[1] 贾文峥[1] 沙茜 LI Song-feng;LIU Shu-hao;FENG Xu-jie;JIA Wen-zheng;SHA Xi(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2021年第6期79-86,共8页Transport Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(20184804)。

摘　　要：为客观量化评价我国城市轨道交通新线运营前安全风险水平,提高新线风险管控能力,应用目标层次分类法构建评价指标体系;结合主观赋权法和灰色关联度理论,研究提出了一种基于加权灰色关联度的评价模型和指标计算方法;并以国内近期新开通的4条线路为例进行实证分析,得到各线路运营前安全风险水平排序。研究结果表明,新线运营前安全风险评价是多因素共同作用的结果,单纯从问题数量和范围维度无法作出客观科学的评价;新线工程质量、运营准备情况和工程完整度是影响安全风险水平的主要因素,且对风险水平的影响程度依次降低;运营接管及介入程度、试运行跑图质量两个指标对评价结果影响最大。为此,需要提高运营筹备精细化水平和试运行全过程介入深度,以控制并降低新线运营前安全风险。In order to objectively and quantitatively evaluate the pre-operation safety risk level of new ur-ban rail transit lines,improve the risk management and control capabilities of the new lines,the goal-level classification method was used to construct an evaluation index system.On this basis,a pre-operation safe-ty risk evaluation model and the corresponding index calculation method for the new lines were put for-ward by subjective weighting and grey correlation theory.4 newly opened domestic lines were took as ex-amples for empirical evaluation,and the ranking of safety risk levels before operation were got.The re-search results show that the safety risk assessment before the operation of the new line was the result of multiple factors.It was impossible to make an objective and scientific evaluation simply from the di-mensions of problem quantity and scope.The quality of the new line project,the operational readiness and the integrity of the project were the main factors affecting the level of safety risk,and the impact of each factor on the risk level was reduced in turn.The two indicators of operation takeover and inter-vention degree,and the quality of the trial run map had the greatest impact on the evaluation results.It was necessary to increase the level of refinement of operation preparation and the depth of intervention in the whole process of trial operation,in order to control and reduce the safety risks before the new line operation.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 新线运营前安全风险 加权灰色关联度 安全评估 风险评价 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]