基于SR-CM的公务航空运行安全风险评估  

Safety risk assessment of business aviation operation based on SR-CM

作　　者：高扬 贾晓珊 GAO Yang;JIA Xiao-shan(College of General Aviation,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;College of Flight Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学通用航空学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学飞行技术学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第6期2415-2422,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：民航局安全能力建设项目(ASSA2017017)。

摘　　要：为了对公务航空进行有效的安全风险管控,基于公务航空运行特点,构建基于Spearman秩相关系数-云模型(SR-CM)的公务航空运行安全风险评估模型。通过对近8年国内外公务航空事故事件进行分析整理统计,建立基于人-机-环-管系统的安全风险指标体系;针对单一赋权造成的随机性和模糊性,构建Spearman秩相关系数(SRCC)组合赋权模型,结合云模型(CM),将定性指标定量化进行安全风险评估。最后运用SR-CM模型对A公务航空公司进行试点验证,计算该公务航空公司的安全风险等级与安全风险等级标准之间的隶属度。结果表明,该公务航空公司安全风险评语云涉及从低风险到较高风险,并且与一般风险相似度最大,确定该公务航空公司的安全风险等级为一般风险。This paper aims to establish a new safety risk assessment model of business aviation operation to make up for the assessment loopholes of business aviation.Based on the operational characteristics of business aviation,a safety risk assessment model of business aviation operation based on Spearman rank correlation coefficient and cloud model(SR-CM) is constructed to effectively control the safety risk of business aviation.Through the analysis,sort,and statistics of domestic and foreign business aviation related accidents in the past 8 years,the key accidents are screened and analyzed.Then the safety risk index system of business aviation operation based on “human-machine-environment-management” is established with 22 secondary indicators.To overcome the randomness and fuzziness caused by a single weighting method,a weighting model of Spearman rank correlation coefficient(SRCC) combining the weights obtained by the three methods(CRITIC,G1,and FAHP) with cloud model(CM)qualitative indexes is developed.The developed model is used to quantify the qualitative indexes for safety risk assessment.In the process of using the cloud model,according to the digital characteristics of each cloud drop and the nephogram of evaluation criteria cloud,the similarity between the comprehensive cloud model and all levels of safety risk levels is established.Then,the corresponding nephogram of each index is drawn.Finally,the feasibility and scientificity of the model are confirmed by an example of A business airline.The membership degree between the safety risk level and the safety risk level standard of the business airline is determined providing the foundation and basis for further safety risk control.The results show that the safety risk evaluation cloud of the business airline involves from low risk to high risk,and has the largest similarity with the general risk level.The safety risk level of the business airline is a general risk,that is,the risk level is level II,and the similarity assessment cloud is(3,0.33,0.1).

关 键 词：安全工程 安全风险评估 Spearman秩相关系数(SRCC) 组合赋权 云模型(CM) 公务航空 

分 类 号：X94[环境科学与工程—安全科学]