基于博弈论组合赋权的航道水域通航安全评价  

Evaluation for the channel waters navigation safety based on the synthetic weighing of the game theory

作　　者：黄耀倞 许拴梅[1,2] 姜苗苗 李伟峰 HUANG Yao-liang;XU Shuan-mei;JIANG Miao-miao;LI Wei-feng(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;Key Laboratory of Navigation Safety Guarantee of Liaoning Province,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院 [2]大连海事大学辽宁省航海安全保障重点实验室

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第6期2430-2437,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：青年教师科技创新项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)(3132020134)。

摘　　要：为有效降低航道水域通航过程中发生事故的风险,将组合赋权方法应用于航道水域通航安全评价中。通过调研和查阅资料确定了航道通航安全评价指标体系,基于该指标体系建立了基于博弈论组合赋权法的航道水域通航安全评价模型。利用博弈论将层次分析法、熵权法、可拓学3种方法计算所得权重进行最优组合,兼顾专家决策者的主观属性及数据蕴含的不确定性和动态可拓性,然后基于可拓学关联度的概念对航道关于各评价等级的关联关系进行综合评价,得到最终评价结果,并对计算结果从权重角度进行灵敏度分析,考察结果的稳定性和可靠性。最后,以宁波-舟山港为例,选取部分航道对该安全评价模型进行验证,结果表明该评估模型合理、有效。The paper intends to study the ways to enhance the navigation safety effectively by reducing the risk accidents in the navigation of the channel waters in combination with the weighting method.Through investigation and data review,we have determined the safety evaluation index system of the navigational channels.Based on the joint weighing method of the game theory,we have managed to combine the weights calculated optimistically by the 3 methods along the thoughts of the game theory.The said 3 methods are known as the analytic hierarchy process,the entropy weight and the dynamic weight based on the extension theory.What is more,the combined weight method should take into its own features the subjective attributes of the decision makers,the uncertainty and the dynamic extensibility contained in the data,for the said combined weight should reflect the similar results gained by the multiple weighting methods.And,then,to achieve the balance,the evaluation method should make it “compromised” with the large errors in the final result,for the combined weights should be an optimized weight,which should be made to get rid of likely to be caused by using the weighing method.In addition,before the various weighing methods were to be used jointly,the given paper has to do the consistency test for each weighing method from the perspective of the distance function,which can get rid of the blindness in combination.And,then,based on the concept of extenics correlation degree,the paper has to make a comprehensive assessment over the correlation between the waterway and each safety grade,so as to choose the appropriate standards to gain the final safety evaluation results of the channels through the correlation checking between the channels and each safety level.At the same time,from the perspective of the weight,we have also done the sensitivity analysis of the calculation results.For instance,when the weight or the relevance of the evaluation index changes due to changes in the external environment,there should be the possib

关 键 词：安全工程 熵值 可拓理论 组合赋权 博弈论 关联度 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4