基于改进GM(1,1)模型的管壁结蜡厚度增长规律研究  

Study on the growth law of wax deposition thickness on pipe wall based on improved GM(1,1) model

作　　者：靳文博[1,2] 秦大鹏 孙辰 陈景皓 王磊 JIN Wen-bo;QIN Da-peng;SUN Chen;CHEN Jing-hao;WANG Lei(College of Petroleum Engineering,Xi'an Shiyou University,Xi'an 710065,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Pipeline Critical Technology and Equipment for Deepwater Oil&Gas Development,Beijing 102617,China;Changqing Oilfield Company Oil Production Plant NO.6,Xi'an 710200,China;The Second Oil Production Plant of Qinghai Oilfield,Haixi 817500,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]西安石油大学石油工程学院,西安710065 [2]深水油气管线关键技术与装备北京市重点实验室,北京102617 [3]长庆油田公司第六采油厂,西安710200 [4]青海油田采油二厂,青海海西817500

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第6期2563-2570,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：深水油气管线关键技术与装备北京市重点实验室开放课题(BIPT2020002);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(20JK0844)。

摘　　要：为了进一步分析蜡沉积厚度随时间的变化规律,采用灰色理论和相关数据变换方法建立了改进GM(1,1)模型。在掌握传统GM(1,1)模型建模步骤的基础上,基于弱化缓冲算子的基本原理和线性变换方法对GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,采用均方差比、小概率误差及平均相对误差对比分析了传统模型和改进GM(1,1)模型的精度。实例计算结果表明:弱化缓冲算子作用后的改进模型较传统模型有更高的精度;采用缓冲算子结合线性变换方法所建改进模型的精度较好,其精度高于仅考虑缓冲算子时的改进模型;线性变换函数中常数R的改变会影响改进模型的精度,合理选择R有助于模型达到更高的精度;应用弱化缓冲算子结合线性变换方法建立改进模型来研究管壁结蜡厚度的增长规律完全可行。To further analyze the variation law of wax deposition thickness with time,the improved GM(1,1) models are constructed by using grey theory and the related data transformation method.Based on the modeling steps of the traditional GM(1,1) model,the basic theory of weakening buffer operator and the linear transformation method are used to improve the traditional GM(1,1) model,and the improved GM(1,1) models of wax deposition thickness changing with time are established.The experimental data of wax deposition in the indoor loop(example 1) and the wax deposition data of the actual pipeline(example 2) are taken as the research objects.The accuracy of the improved models and the traditional model is compared and analyzed based on the small error probability,mean square error ratio,and average relative error.The calculation results of example 1 show that the accuracy of each model is high,and the mean square error ratio and the small error probability are all first order.Compared with the traditional model,the average relative error and mean square error ratio of the improved model simulation are significantly reduced,so the accuracy of the improved model with buffer operator is higher than that of the traditional model.The accuracy of the improved models using buffer operator combined with linear transformation method is generally better than that of the improved model only using buffer operator.The accuracy of the model rises first and then decreases with the increase of the R-value in the linear transformation.The calculation results of example 2 show that the accuracy of the traditional model and the improved models are high,and the mean square error ratio and small error probability are still at the first level.Compared with the traditional model and the improved model only using buffer operator,both the average relative error and mean square error ratio of the improved model simulation by using buffer operator combined with linear transformation method are lower.The accuracy of the model rises with the increase of

关 键 词：安全工程 结蜡厚度 弱化缓冲算子 线性变换 改进GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]