基于剩余风险分析的景区动态安全容量研究  

Research on dynamic safety capacity of scenic area based on residual risk analysis

作　　者：马峻 孙亮[1] 张彧婷 王尚康 MA Jun;SUN Liang;ZHANG Yu-ting;WANG Shang-kang(School of Management Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京100070

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第6期2684-2693,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为改善多采用基于硬件设施及环境承载力核算景区安全容量的静态化管理现状,在核算景区安全容量、舒适容量、生理容量的基础上,充分考虑景区各系统要素的协同效应对安全容量的扰动,提出了景区疏散抵消因子、安全管理抵消因子、应急管控抵消因子,进而构建了基于剩余风险分析的景区动态安全容量核算方法。以什刹海景区为例加以计算,结果表明,什刹海景区舒适容量、安全容量、生理容量分别为30 000人、55 000人、75 000人,其中生理容量为景区动态安全容量的上限值。进一步计算发现,景区容量与管控力量呈线性关系,在不超过景区安全容量上限的前提下,景区动态安全容量可通过调整管控力量来调节,为景区安全管理提供了依据。At present,the safety capacity of scenic spots based on hardware facilities and ecological carrying capacity is under static control level.To improve this situation,a dynamic correction method was established based on risk analysis for the capacity of Shicha Lake Scenic Area.This method calculated the safety capacity,comfortable capacity,and physiological capacity of the scenic spot according to relevant standards,and considered the disturbance of the synergy of system elements on the scenic safety capacity.Thus,the scenic evacuation offset factor,safety management offset factor,and emergency control offset factor were proposed,and then the residual risk assessment model of a crowd gathering in scenic spots was built.This model can promote the development of vibrant and active scenic environment capacity management.Taking Shicha Lake as an example to analyze and test the model,the results show that the comfortable capacity,safety capacity,and physiological capacity of Shicha Lake Scenic Area are 30 000,55 000,and 75 000 respectively,and the physiological capacity is the upper limit of the dynamic safety capacity of the scenic spot.The study found that the residual risk assessment model of a crowd gathering in scenic spots reflects the linear relationship between the dependable capacity of scenic spots and the power of management and control by changing crowd gathering risk parameters.The fitting curve of the management and control power of discrete areas and the dynamic safety capacity of the scenic spot were generated.The research results show that the dynamic safety capacity of the scenic spot can be adjusted by adjusting the control force under the premise that the flow of people in the scenic spot is not greater than the upper limit of the dependable capacity of the scenic spot.This research is conducive to optimizing the management and control resources of the scenic spot,thereby providing a scientific basis for the safety management of scenic spots.

关 键 词：公共安全 景区 安全容量 人群聚集 动态管控 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]