基于贝叶斯网络的海盗劫持风险评估  

Risk assessment of pirate hijacking based on Bayesian network

作　　者：李晶 刘钇杭 朱乐群 LI Jing;LIU Yi-hang;ZHU Le-qun(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;Policy Research Center,Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering M.O.T.,Tianjin 300456,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究院,政策研究室,天津300456

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第6期2702-2708,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71974023)。

摘　　要：为保障船舶运行安全,维护海上运输通道安全稳定,引入贝叶斯网络对全球海盗劫持风险进行了评估。基于贝叶斯网络对海盗劫持风险概率进行评估,利用风险矩阵法对海盗劫持风险进行综合评估,最后针对风险结果进行风险管理分析。结果表明,西非几内亚湾海域盗劫持风险为中等风险,须重点防范。海盗登船成功、反海盗登船措施及船舶自身因素是影响该区域海盗劫持事件最为关键的风险因素,从而为实施相应的风险管理举措提供了理论依据。In order to ensure the safety and stability of China’s maritime supply chain,reducing the incidence of pirate hijacking,this paper makes a comprehensive assessment of the risk of pirate hijacking.This study is based on the Global Integrated Shipping Information System(GISIS) piracy attack database.Firstly,we need to analyze 1 150 pirate attacks from 2015 to 2020.Based on the actual pirate hijacking process which include two stages of pirate boarding and pirate hijacking,a two-stage pirate Bayesian network is constructed to obtain the probability of pirate hijacking risk in different regions.Then taking the number of pirate hijackers as the risk consequence,the risk matrix method is used to comprehensively evaluate the risk of pirate hijacking in different regions.Finally,the sensitivity analysis is carried out in high-risk regions to implement risk management analysis.As a result,the pirate’s chance of success in the Gulf of Guznea in West Africa is 15.2%.Moreover,the risk of pirate hijacking in this sea area is medium risk,this sea area should focus on prevention and take reasonable risk control measures to reduce the risk.The sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical risk factors are the success of pirate boarding,anti pirate boarding measures and ship’s own factors.The greater the risk of anti pirate boarding measures,the greater the risk of ship being hijacked by pirate,and the smaller the risk of the ship itself,the smaller the risk of the ship being hijacked by pirate.These factors provide a theoretical basis for the implementation of the corresponding risk management measures.

关 键 词：安全社会科学 海盗劫持贝叶斯网络 风险评估 

分 类 号：X928.9[环境科学与工程—安全科学]