2021年世界贸易复苏趋势与中国未来机遇  

Recovery of World Trade in 2021 and China’s Opportunities in the Future

作　　者：裴长洪[1] 杨志远[2] PEI Changhong;YANG Zhiyuan(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;University of Anhui Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学 [2]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《国际贸易》2021年第12期9-18,共10页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“三重叠加冲击下全球价值链重整与中国国内生产链构建融合发展研究”(20BJL115)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：全球贸易增速在2021年第一季度已经恢复到疫情前的水平,达到4.3%。然而,贸易规模的恢复呈现明显的地区差异性和不平衡性,同时仍然面临疫情变化的困扰。展望2022年,全球贸易复苏依然存在诸多不确定因素,而数字贸易增长的动力依然强劲。2021年中国在应对疫情和对外经济贸易发展中表现卓越,为世界提供了中国样板。未来,在人工智能、大数据、5G以及云计算等数字技术的推动下,新技术革命将引领全球创新链重新布局,各个国家都出台了数字贸易国家战略,数字贸易规则的完善等成为国际竞争的新赛道、新领域,这些领域将会带来我国抢占全球价值链新高地的重要机遇。The growth rate of global trade has returned to the pre-epidemic level in the first quarter of 2021,reaching4.3%.However,the recovery of trade scale shows obvious regional differences and imbalance,and still faces the problem of epidemic changes.Looking forward to2022,there are still many uncertain factors in the recovery of Global trade,and the driving force of digital trade growth is still strong.In2021,China made outstanding achievements in the fight against epidemic diseases and the development of foreign economy and trade,providing a Chinese model for the world.In the future,driven by digital technologies such as AI,5 G and cloud computing,the new technology revolution will lead the re layout of the global innovation chain.All countries have issued national strategies for digital trade,and the improvement of digital trade rules will become new tracks and fields of international competition.These fields will become an important opportunity for China to seize the new heights of the global value chain.

关 键 词：世界贸易复苏 叠加冲击 双循环新格局 中国经验与机遇 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] F752[经济管理—产业经济]