2021—2025年北京市昌平区结核病报告发病率模型预测研究  

Predictive study of reported incidences of tuberculosis by different models in Changping District,Beijing,2021-2025

作　　者：张治国[1] 杨震[1] 包城 赵飞 Zhang Zhiguo;Yang Zhen;Bao Cheng;Zhao Fei(Beijing Changping Institute for Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment,Beijing 102200,China;Clinical Trial Center,Beijing Hospital,National Center of Gerontology,Institute of Geriatric Medicine,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100730,China;Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市昌平区结核病防治所,北京102200 [2]北京医院临床试验研究中心,国家老年医学中心,中国医学科学院老年医学研究院,北京100730 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中国医学前沿杂志（电子版）》2022年第1期24-27,共4页Chinese Journal of the Frontiers of Medical Science(Electronic Version)

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(7174323);北京市科技计划项目(Z191100007619038,D181100000418004)。

摘　　要：目的本研究对2021—2025年北京市昌平区结核病报告发病率进行预测,为未来当地结核病防治工作的开展提供一定参考。方法利用2010—2020年北京市昌平区结核病报告发病数据和常住人口数计算各年报告发病率;通过时间序列分析、回归模型、灰色模型对2010—2018年数据进行拟合,通过2019—2020年数据进行外部验证;最终拟合全部数据对2021—2025年报告发病率进行预测。结果 3种模型拟合效果均较好,残差均不超过1%。3种模型预测结果均显示,预计到2025年,结核病报告发病率较2015年下降约28.87%~31.21%。结论 3种模型均适用于拟合昌平区结核病报告发病数据,且预计2021—2025年昌平区结核病报告发病情况呈现下降趋势。Objective To predict the reported incidence of tuberculosis(TB)by different models in Changping District,Beijing from 2021 to 2025,providing the evidence for TB control in this area.Method The reported TB incidence by year were calculated using the reported TB incidence data and resident population in Changping District,Beijing from 2010 to 2020.Fitting data with time series model,regression model,and gray model using data from 2010 to 2018,and external validation was applied with the data from 2019 to 2020.The final fit to the full data provided a prediction of reported incidence for 2021-2015.Result All 3 models fitted well,with residuals not exceeding 1%.All 3 models predictions showed that the reported incidence of TB were expected to decrease by approximately 28.87% to 31.21% by 2025 compared to 2015.Conclusion All 3 models are suitable for fitting the data of reported TB incidence in Changping District,and a decreasing trend of reported TB incidence in Changping District is expected from 2021 to 2025.

关 键 词：结核病 预测 时间序列 回归模型 灰色模型 

分 类 号：R52[医药卫生—内科学]