2010-2020年上海市浦东新区居民糖尿病死亡及早死概率空间流行病学特征分析  

Analysis of the Spatial Epidemiological Characteristics of the Probability of Diabetes Death and Premature Death among Residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2010 to 2020

作　　者：陈亦晨 陈华 孙良红 曲晓滨 李小攀 陈涵一 杨琛 周弋 徐望红[1] CHEN Yichen;CHEN Hua;SUN Lianghong;QU Xiaobin;LI Xiaopan;CHEN Hanyi;YANG Chen;ZHOU Yi;XU Wanghong(School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China;Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine,Pudong New Area,Shanghai 200136,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [2]上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心,复旦大学浦东预防医学研究院,200136

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2022年第6期729-734,共6页Chinese General Practice

基　　金：上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2020—2022年)优秀青年人才培养计划(GWV-10.2-YQ43);上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2020—2022年)优秀学科带头人项目(GWV-10.2-XD24);上海市浦东新区卫生系统学科带头人培养计划(PWRd2019-11);浦东新区疾病预防控制中心卫生科技项目(PDCDC-2021-06)。

摘　　要：背景随着社会经济的发展,糖尿病发病率的快速增长已成为一个重要的公共卫生问题,但目前糖尿病城乡分布的研究依然较少。目的了解2010—2020年浦东新区居民糖尿病死亡率与早死概率现状的空间流行病学特征,为制定区域内糖尿病防控策略提供参考。方法2021年5月,以上海市浦东新区户籍居民死亡数据库为基础,从中筛选2010—2020年报告的糖尿病死亡资料进行分析。分别计算浦东新区各街道、镇居民糖尿病死亡的粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率及年变化百分比(APC)分析浦东新区糖尿病死亡现状与变化趋势,利用地理信息系统(GIS)绘制糖尿病死亡的空间分布图并分别开展趋势面分析与空间自相关分析。结果2010—2020年浦东新区居民糖尿病粗死亡率为37.90/10万,标化死亡率为16.90/10万,早死概率为0.52%。2010—2020浦东新区居民糖尿病粗死亡率、标化死亡率及早死概率呈上升趋势(APC_(粗死亡率)=5.59%,Z=13.887,P=0.001;APC_(标化死亡率)=2.06%,Z=4.547,P=0.001;APC_(早死概率)=1.50%,Z=2.476,P=0.035)。趋势面分析结果显示,浦东新区居民糖尿病粗死亡率与标化死亡率由北向南逐步降低,早死概率在南北方向上呈中间高两端低的趋势,粗死亡率、标化死亡率及早死概率的APC由北向南呈逐步下降的趋势;在东西方向上,糖尿病粗死亡率、标化死亡率与早死概率均呈两端高中间低的趋势,粗死亡率、标化死亡率及早死概率APC呈中间高两端低的趋势。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,浦东新区居民糖尿病粗死亡率、标化死亡率与早死概率均呈空间正相关(P_(粗死亡率)<0.001,P_(标化死亡率)<0.001,P_(早死概率)=0.003)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,糖尿病粗死亡率与标化死亡率的高-高聚集区域为浦东新区西部,均包含6个街道与1个镇且存在部分地理重叠;标化死亡率低-低聚集区为浦东新区中部的川沙�Background With the development of society and economy,the rapid growth of diabetes incidence has become an important public health problem,but there are still few studies on the urban and rural distribution of diabetes.Objective To explore the spatial epidemiological characteristics of mortality and probability of premature death caused by diabetes among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2010 to 2020,so as to provide the reference for the development of the regional strategy for diabetes control and prevention.Methods The diabetes death data reported from 2010 to 2020 were screened for analysis based on the death surveillance system in Pudong New Area in May 2021.The Crude mortality,age-standardized mortality,probability of premature death caused by diabetes and the annual percentage change(APC)of the residents from diabetes in each subdistricts and towns of Pudong New Area,so as to analyze the status and trend of diabetes death in Pudong New Area.The geographical information system(GIS)was used to plot the spatial distribution map of diabetes deaths and carry out trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis respectively.Results The crude mortality,age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by diabetes among residents in Pudong New Area between 2010 and 2020 were 37.90/100000,16.90/100000 and 0.52%,respectively.The crude mortality rate,the age-standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature death caused by diabetes had been on the rise in Pudong New Area between 2010 and 2020(APC for crude mortality rate=5.59%,Z=13.887,P=0.001,APC for age-standardized mortality rate=2.06%,Z=4.547,P=0.001,APC for the probability of premature death=1.50%,Z=2.476,P=0.035).The trend surface analysis showed that the crude and standardized mortality of diabetes in Pudong New Area gradually decreased from north to south,the probability of premature death was high in the middle and low in the north and south,the APC of crude death rate,standardized death rate and prematur

关 键 词：糖尿病 死亡率 早死概率 变化趋势 空间流行病学 上海 

分 类 号：R587.1[医药卫生—内分泌]