黄河流域农业生态效率时空演变与冲击效应  

Spatial-temporal evolution and impact effect of agricultural ecological efficiency in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：梁耀文 王宝海[1] 丁慧媛[1] 贾舒涵 LIANG Yao-wen;WANG Bao-hai;DING Hui-yuan;JIA Shu-han(School of Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学管理学院,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2022年第1期54-60,101,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山东省重点研发计划项目(软科学项目)(2020RKB01543)。

摘　　要：黄河流域是中国农业重要的生态屏障,农业生态问题直接影响黄河流域的农业高质量发展。研究综合运用以农业碳排放和农业面源污染为非期望产出的超效率EBM模型、标准差椭圆技术和核密度估计等方法,测算分析2000—2019年黄河流域9省(区)的农业生态效率,并构建向量自回归模型分析驱动因素的冲击效应。结果表明,黄河流域农业生态效率整体呈下降趋势,区域差异增大,两极化现象逐渐突出,农业生态效率提升的重点是低值省(区);空间分布整体呈现东北-西南格局,具有向西南方向偏移的趋势;财政支农水平、农业研发投入、经济发展水平、农业机械密度对农业生态效率产生正向冲击效应,农业受灾率、人口老龄化程度具有负向冲击效应。The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier for agriculture in China.Agricultural ecological problems directly affect the high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin.In this paper,super-efficiency EBM model,standard de⁃viation ellipse technique and kernel density estimation with agricultural carbon emission and agricultural non-point source pollution as undesirable outputs were comprehensively used to calculate and analyze the agricultural ecological efficiency of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019,and the vector autoregressive model was constructed to analyze the impact effect of driving fac⁃tors.The results showed that the overall agricultural ecological efficiency in the Yellow River Basin indicated a downward trend,and regional differences increased.The polarization phenomenon was gradually prominent,and the focus of agricultural ecological efficien⁃cy improvement was low-value provinces.The overall spatial distribution presented a pattern of northeast-southwest,with a trend of migration to southwest.The level of financial support for agriculture,agricultural R&D investment,economic development level and agricultural machinery density had a positive impact on agricultural ecological efficiency,and the agricultural disaster rate and the de⁃gree of population aging had a negative impact.

关 键 词：黄河流域 农业生态效率 农业碳排放 时空演变 冲击效应 

分 类 号：F323.1[经济管理—产业经济]