新的国土空间规划体系下城镇用地规模预测探究——以广西壮族自治区合山市为例  

A Prediction of Urban Construction Land Scale Under the New Land Spatial Planning System:A Case Study of Heshan City in Guangxi Autonomous Region

作　　者：黄经南[1] 晏轶凡 张金亭[2] HUANG Jing-nan

机构地区：[1]武汉大学城市设计学院 [2]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2021年第9期92-103,共12页Urban Problems

摘　　要：从发展和保护平衡的角度提出新的国土空间规划体系下城镇用地规模预测应分为初步预测和反向校核两个阶段。在初步预测阶段,首先确定城镇化率,然后分别从城市发展趋势、发展需求和资源保护角度预测城市人口规模,确定人均城市建设用地指标,最后获得城镇用地规模预测初步结果。在反向校核阶段,分析预测方案的普适性和特殊性限制条件,确定城乡建设用地、建设用地总规模和地均产值三个校核指标,提出用地效率逐年上升和用地规模增长速度逐年下降两个校核要求,并制定校核预测流程。在此基础上,以广西壮族自治区合山市用地规模预测为例,对预测方法加以应用。From the perspective of balance between development and protection,this paper proposes that under the new land spatial planning system,the prediction of urban construction land scale should be divided into two steps,traditional land use scale prediction and additional verification. Urban scale prediction first predicts the urbanization rate,second calculates the urban population size from three aspects,including current population,development demand and resource protection,third determines the per capita urban construction land index,and finally obtains the urban land scale prediction scheme. In the verification stage,the universal and characteristic restrictions of the prediction scheme are analyzed,and three check indexes are determined,including urban and rural construction land,the total construction land scale and the average land output value,followed by two checking requirements of annual land use efficiency increasing and annual growth rate of land use scale decreasing.Finally,Heshan City of Guangxi Autonomous Region was taken as an example.

关 键 词：用地规模预测 约束性指标 限制条件 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]