考虑温度和负荷相关性的重庆冬季空调负荷计算  

Calculation of Chongqing winter air conditioning load considering the correlation between temperature and load

作　　者：王瑞妙 姚欣愚 赵小娟 朱小军 李牧水 WANG Ruimiao;YAO Xinyu;ZHAO Xiaojuan;ZHU Xiaojun;LI Mushui(Electric Power Science Research Institute,State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 404100,China;Jiangjin Electric Power Supply Branch,State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 402290,China;Changshou Electric Power Supply Branch,State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 401220,China)

机构地区：[1]国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院,重庆404100 [2]国网重庆市电力公司江津区供电分公司,重庆402290 [3]国网重庆市电力公司长寿供电分公司,重庆401220

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2021年第6期157-163,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际交流合作项目(51861145406)。

摘　　要：空调设备的广泛应用给电网带来了大量的空调负荷,对电力系统的安全经济运行产生了越来越大的影响。为了正确估计空调负荷规模,提出一种考虑温度与负荷相关性的冬季空调负荷计算方法。首先,通过计算温度与负荷在筛选过程中的相关系数,从基准日中剔除异常温度日;其次,考虑到基本负荷的日增长情况,采用回归分析法拟合冬季各日的基本负荷曲线。针对春节期间电力系统负荷急剧下降的特点,提出用春节系数来修正冬季基本负荷,冬季空调负荷则为冬季电力系统负荷与冬季基本负荷之差。最后,利用该方法对重庆市2018年冬季空调负荷进行计算,验证所提方法的有效性。The widespread application of air-conditioning equipment has brought a large amount of air-conditioning load to the power grid,which has an increasing impact on the safe and economic operation of the power system.In order to correctly estimate the air-conditioning load scale,this paper proposes a winter air-conditioning load calculation method that considers the correlation between temperature and load.Firstly,by calculating the correlation coefficient between temperature and load in the screening process,the abnormal temperature day is excluded from the reference day.Secondly,considering the daily growth of basic load,regression analysis method is used to fit the basic load curve of each day in winter.In view of the characteristics of the rapid decline of the power system load during the Spring Festival,the Spring Festival coefficient is proposed to modify the basic load of the winter base load.The winter air-conditioning load is the difference between the winter power system load and the winter base load.This method is used to calculate the air-conditioning load in Chongqing in 2018.The results show the effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：空调负荷 温度 相关分析 回归分析 

分 类 号：TM470.40[电气工程—电器]