旅游价格、国别差异与入境旅游消费人次  

Tourism Price,Country Difference and Inbound Tourists

作　　者：蓝管秀锋 朱伟媚 匡贤明[1] LAN Guanxiufeng;ZHU Weimei;KUANG Xianming(School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110819,China;Qingtian County Water Resources Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Lishui Zhejiang 323900,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [2]浙江省青田县水利局,浙江丽水323900

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期109-119,共11页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AZD016)。

摘　　要：基于17个国家1999—2018年各季度的数据,构建旅游价格影响入境旅游消费人次的动态固定效应面板模型,研究旅游价格在国别差异下对入境旅游消费影响的差异性。研究结果表明:实际相对价格和实际替代价格对入境旅游消费人次存在显著的负向影响效应,而且相对价格的负向作用更强。同时,国内物价水平稳定对入境旅游消费人次具有重要的作用;旅客旅游消费偏好具有稳定性,相对于东南亚国家及与中国临近的三国,欧盟国家对中国入境旅游消费的偏好更稳定也更理性;旅游目的地国开放度提高1%对入境旅游消费人次带来0.8%的增长,但客源国开放度会导致入境旅游消费人次的分流;在全球金融危机、“非典”疫情和美国恐怖袭击事件中,“非典”疫情对于入境旅游消费人次的负面影响最大。Based on the quarterly data of 17 countries from 1999 to 2018,this paper constructs a dynamic fixed effect panel model of the impact of tourism price on inbound tourists,and studies the differences of the impact of tourism price on inbound tourism consumption in different countries.The results show that the actual relative price and the actual substitute price have significant negative effects on the inbound tourists,and the negative effect of the relative price is stronger.At the same time,the stability of domestic price level plays an important role in the number of inbound tourists.Compared with Southeast Asian countries,and the three countries closed to China,EU countries have more stable and rational preferences for China’s inbound tourism consumption.A 1%increase in the openness of a country will bring 0.8%increase in the number of inbound tourists,but the openness of the source country will lead to the diversion of inbound tourists.Among the global financial crisis,SARS and terrorist attacks,SARS has the greatest negative impact on inbound tourists.

关 键 词：旅游价格 国别差异 入境旅游消费人次 负外部冲击 入境旅游需求模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]