“双碳”目标下我国低碳清洁氢能进展与展望  

Outlook of low carbon and clean hydrogen in China under the goal of "carbon peak and neutrality"

作　　者：刘玮 万燕鸣 熊亚林 刘坚[2] LIU Wei;WAN Yanming;XIONG Yalin;LIU Jian(Guohua Energy Investment Co.Ltd.,China Hydrogen Alliance Research Institute,Beijing 100007,China;Energy Research Institute of national development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]国华能源投资有限公司,中国氢能联盟研究院,北京100007 [2]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京100045

出　　处：《储能科学与技术》2022年第2期635-642,共8页Energy Storage Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB1503100);国华投资公司科技创新项目(碳中和愿景下公司氢能发展路径研究)。

摘　　要：2020年是氢能发展加速之年。中国国家主席习近平在第75届联合国大会期间提出,中国二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。应对气候变化的脱碳愿景逐步成为氢能大规模部署的最重要驱动力。但我国目前在碳中和战略下氢能产业发展目标和路径尚不明确,本文应用情景分析方法和长期能源替代规划(LEAP)模型的计算,对我国交通、工业、建筑与发电等领域的氢能进行需求分析测算,研究结果表明,为实现2060年碳中和目标,我国氢气的年需求量将从目前的3342万吨增加至1.3亿吨左右,在终端能源体系中占比达20%。随着深度脱碳需求的增加和低碳清洁氢经济性的提升,氢能在工业、交通、建筑与发电等领域逐步渗透,氢能供给结构从化石能源为主的非低碳氢逐步过渡到以可再生能源为主的清洁氢,并将提供80%氢能需求。2060年,低碳清洁氢供氢体系二氧化碳减排量约17亿吨/年,约占当前我国能源活动二氧化碳总排放量的17%。2020 was the year of rapid hydrogen energy development. During the seventy-fifth United Nations General Assembly, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed that China’s carbon dioxide emission should peak by 2030 and aim for carbon neutrality by 2060. The decarbonization vision for addressing climate change has gradually become the primary driver of large-scale hydrogen energy deployment. However, the hydrogen industry’s development goal and path under the carbon neutrality strategy in China remain unclear. This study analyzes and calculates the demand for hydrogen energy in China’s transportation, industrial,construction, and power generating sectors using the scenario analysis method and longrange energy alternatives planning(LEAP) model. The results show that to achieve the carbon neutrality goal in 2060, the annual demand for hydrogen in China will increase from33.42 million tons to 130 million tons, accounting for 20% of the terminal energy system. With the increasing demand for deep decarbonization and advancements in the low-carbon clean hydrogen economy;hydrogen energy has gradually penetrated the fields of industry,transportation, construction, and power generation. Hydrogen energy supply is gradually shifting away from non-low carbon-hydrogen dominated by fossil energy to clean hydrogen dominated by renewable energy, which will provide 80% of hydrogen energy demand. By2060, the low-carbon clean hydrogen supply system will have reduced CO2 emission by about1.7 billion t/a, accounting for about 17% of China’s total CO2 emission today.

关 键 词：碳中和 低碳氢 清洁氢 氢能 展望 

分 类 号：TK91[动力工程及工程热物理]