基于ADCIRC的广州市风暴潮精细化预报模型的建立与验证  

Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou

作　　者：罗智丰[1] 陈刚[1] 道付海 LUO Zhifeng;CHEN Gang;DAO Fuhai(Guangzhou Branch of Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Guangzhou 510150,China;Guangdong Haiqixing Ocean Technology Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 511400,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局广州水文分局,广东广州510150 [2]广东海启星海洋科技有限公司,广东广州511400

出　　处：《人民珠江》2022年第1期28-35,共8页Pearl River

摘　　要：构建基于ADCIRC的广州市风暴潮精细化预报模型,同时考虑上游来水、天文潮、风暴潮共同影响,以上游来水及外海潮位预报作为上下边界输入,采用Jelesnianski台风模型驱动,利用不规则三角网格模拟岸线地形变化,分别与珠江口附近城市的6个代表潮位站的天文潮及“山竹”“天鸽”台风影响期间广州市6个潮位站实测水位验证对比。结果显示:模型预报的精细化程度高可达到百米级;潮位站天文潮拟合最大平均绝对误差小于13 cm;2场台风的风暴潮的增水过程、最高水位值和出现时间均拟合较好;表明该模型基本可以反映出珠江口沿岸天文潮状况及风暴潮的增水过程,可为广州市风暴潮精细化预警预报工作提供参考。Considering the joint influence of upstream water,astronomical tides,and storm surges,this paper constructs a refined forecast model for storm surges in Guangzhou based on ADCIRC.Driven by the Jelesnianski typhoon model,this model takes the upstream water and the forecast of tide levels in the open sea as the upper and lower boundary input and uses the irregularly triangular grids to simulate the topographic change of coastlines.The astronomical tides of six representative tide stations in cities near the Pearl River Estuary are compared with the measured water levels of six tide stations in Guangzhou under the influence of Typhoon Mangkhut and Hato for verification.The results show that the refinement degree of this forecast model can reach the hundred-meter level,and the maximum mean absolute error of astronomical tide fitting is less than 13 cm.The water increasing process,maximum water level value,and occurrence time of storm surges of the two typhoons are well fitted.All of these indicate that the model can basically reflect the astronomical tides and the water increasing process of storm surges along the Pearl River Estuary,which can provide a reference for the warning and high-resolution prediction of storm surges in Guangzhou.

关 键 词：ADCIRC 风暴潮 精细化 广州 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]