基于Monte Carlo的房地产项目投资风险评估  

Research on investment risk assessment of real estate project based on Monte Carlo

作　　者：周振国[1] 霍正刚[1] 佘远彪 卢建琴 ZHOU Zhenguo;HUO Zhenggang;SHE Yuanbiao;LU Jianqin(School of Architectural Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225127,China;Yangzhou Survey,Design and Research Institute Co.Ltd,Yangzhou 225002,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学建筑科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225127 [2]扬州市勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏扬州225002

出　　处：《扬州大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第6期1-7,共7页Journal of Yangzhou University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部资助项目(2016-R4-014).

摘　　要：为解决房地产企业在项目投资时所需高准确的风险识别与评估,通过识别影响房地产项目经济效益的风险因素,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,建立了在险价值损失模型(value at risk,VaR)与条件风险价值模型(conditional value at risk,CVaR)相结合的净现值(net present value,NPV)分析、内部收益率(internal rate of return,IRR)分析和多因素敏感性分析的投资风险评估模型.仿真分析结果表明,销售收入、土地费用和建设投资对项目经济效益影响较大,并针对这些风险因素提出了相应的建议.In recent years,the real estate market has expanded rapidly,and the macro-control has caused the complex and changeable real estate development environment.Real estate companies need more accurate risk identification and assessment in terms of project investment.This article first identifies the risk factors that affect the economic benefits of real estate projects,and then combines economic evaluation indexes with Monte Carlo simulation to establish the combination of value at risk(VaR)and conditional value at risk(CVaR)for net present value(NPV)analysis,and adopts the internal rate of return(IRR)analysis and multi-factor sensitivity analysis of investment risk assessment model,The results show that sales revenue,land costs and construction investment have a great influence on project economic benefits,and corresponding suggestions are put forward for these risk factors.

关 键 词：房地产项目 项目经济评价 蒙特卡洛模拟法 投资风险评估 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]