酉水流域智能网格降水预报产品及检验  

作　　者：朱国光 陈鹤 

机构地区：[1]湖南省湘西州气象台,湖南吉首416000 [2]湖南省气象台,湖南长沙410118

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2022年第3期30-35,共6页Technology Innovation and Application

基　　金：湖南省气象局重点项目(XQKJ20A004)。

摘　　要：文章利用2021年1月1日至6月30日EC模式和气象站观测资料,对构建的最优TS评分降水预报订正方法进行评估和检验。结果表明:OTS降水预报订正产品的时空分辨率基本满足汛期降水预报以及流域雨量和水位的预报预警服务要求。整个酉水流域中OTS对不同降水等级的预报效果总体优于EC,更加贴近于实况;随着降水等级的变高,EC和OTS的预报能力变弱;降水量级越大,OTS的预报优势越明显,50 mm以上强降水明显高于EC预报。OTS相较于EC的预报优势主要体现在24小时预报上,随着时效的增加优势逐渐减少,说明OTS对于短期预报的订正和改进具有重要意义。OTS方法在不同区域的预报订正能力有所不同,秀山、保靖、永顺等区域的预报准确率较高,预报优势在上述地区也更为明显,在龙山和花垣南部的订正能力较弱。In this paper,the revised method of optimal TS score precipitation forecast is evaluated and tested by using EC model and meteorological station observation data from January 1 to June 30,2021.The results show that the temporal and spatial resolution of the revised OTS precipitation forecast products basically meets the requirements of precipitation forecast in flood season and forecast and early warning service of rainfall and water level in the basin.In the whole Youshui River basin,the forecast effect of OTS for different precipitation grades is generally better than EC,which is closer to the actual situation;with the increase of precipitation grade,the forecast ability of EC and OTS becomes weaker;the larger the precipitation order is,the more obvious the forecast advantage of OTS is,and the heavy precipitation above 50 mm is obviously higher than that of EC.The forecasting advantage of OTS over EC is mainly reflected in the 24-hour forecast,and gradually decreases with the increase of time limit,indicating that OTS is of great significance for the revision and improvement of short-term forecast.The prediction and correction ability of OTS method is different in different regions.The prediction accuracy is higher in Xiushan,Baojing and Yongshun,and the forecast advantage is more obvious in the above areas,while the correction ability is weaker in Longshan and Huayuan.

关 键 词：最优TS评分法 网格预报 酉水流域 检验评估 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]