考虑洪水地区组成不确定性的水库下游防洪风险率计算  

Flood-control Risk Ratio Calculation of Reservoir Downstream Considering Flood Space Allocation Uncertainty

作　　者：孙乃波 刘克琳[2] 程亮[2] 杜慧华 SUN Naibo;LIU Kelin;CHENG Liang;DU Huihua(Weihai Hydrology Center,Weihai 264209,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]威海市水文中心,山东威海264209 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第1期44-48,共5页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0408005)。

摘　　要：随着水库群的调节对下游洪水过程的影响越来越突出,科学评价下游控制点的防洪风险率对复核流域防洪标准、优化水库群防洪调度规则具有重要意义。传统计算方法对洪水地区组成不确定性考虑不足,影响了评价成果的可靠性。针对单库防洪系统,提出了计算水库下游防洪风险率的离散求和-均值一次二阶矩法,该方法不仅能考虑洪水地区组成的不确定性,还能描述该不确定性在防洪系统中的传递特征。将该方法应用于分析沭河流域沙沟-青峰岭防洪系统,结果表明,沙沟水库下游青峰岭断面的防洪风险率为4.02%,满足该防洪系统20年一遇的防洪标准。As the multi-reservoir regulation impacts apparently the downstream flood hydrographs,to evaluate scientifically the flood-control risk of the downstream control points is important for basin flood-control standard verification,as well as multi-reservoir flood control rules optimization.The traditional methods consider the uncertainty of flood space allocation insufficiently,which may influent the reliability of the evaluation results.This article presents discretization summation-mean first order second moment method for flood-control risk ratio calculation at downstream control points of a single reservoir.The presented method considers the uncertainty of flood space allocation,describes the transfer characteristics of that uncertainty in the flood control system as well.The method was applied to Shagou-Qingfengling flood-control system,and the results indicate that the flood-control risk ratio of downstream control point Qingfengling of Shagou Reservoir is 4.02%,which satisfies the 20-years flood-control standard.

关 键 词：洪水地区组成 不确定性 均值一次二阶矩法 防洪风险率 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]