“十四五”清洁取暖重点城市筛选方法及改造目标研究  

Study on Chosen Method and Renovation Goal of Clean Heating Key Cities in the 14;Five-year Plan

作　　者：袁闪闪 陈潇君 薄宇 曲世琳 胡楚梅 贺克斌[1] YUAN Shanshan;CHEN Xiaojun;BO Yu;QU Shilin;HU Chumei;HE Kebin(School of Environment,Tsinghua University f Beijing 100084,China;China Academy of Building Research y Beijing 100013,China;Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [2]中国建筑科学研究院有限公司,北京100013 [3]生态环境部环境规划院,北京100012 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《建筑科学》2021年第12期131-136,143,共7页Building Science

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目“清洁供暖与分布式供能新技术与装备”(2019-Z-006)。

摘　　要："十三五"期间,国家以重点城市为突破口,分3批将"2+26"大气污染传输通道城市、汾渭平原所属的43个城市纳入国家清洁取暖试点城市范围,给予不同规模的中央财政支持,有效推动了重点区域的清洁取暖和打赢蓝天保卫战进程。本文基于渐进决策模型,对"十三五"以试点城市为代表的清洁取暖工作进展、环境改善效果和潜在返煤风险进行分析,提出一种基于环境改善和实施难度分析的"十四五"清洁取暖重点城市筛选方法。通过建立不同城市空气质量改善需求和城市实施难度指标,应用渐进分析决策模型,筛选出11个城市作为"十四五"清洁取暖新增重点城市,提出改造目标,为"十四五"北方地区冬季清洁取暖规划编制及有关政策制定提供技术支撑。During the 13;Five-Year Plan period,taking the key cities as a breakthrough,43 cities among “2+26” air pollution channels cities and Fen-Wei Plains have been taken into the scope of Nation Clean Heating Pilot Cities with central government financial support.This action effectively promoted the process of clean heating and winning the blue sky defense battle.In this paper,based on Incremental Decision-making Model,as well as the analysis on the progress,air quality improvement effect and coal return risk of clean heating for pilot cities in 13;Five-Year Plan period,a new chosen method for clean heating key cities in 14;Five-Year Plan period on the basis of environmental improvement necessity and implementation difficulty analysis was proposed.Through the established index of air quality improvement needs and difficulties,it was suggested that 11 cities should be taken into the scope of Nation Clean Heating Pilot Cities in 14;Five-Year Plan period.With the estimation on renovation goal and investment,this paper will provide technical support for the formulation of the 14;Five-Year Northern Winter Clean Heating Plan and related policies.

关 键 词：清洁取暖 渐进决策模型 “十四五”清洁取暖规划 环境改善需求 筛选方法 改造目标 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]