生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势  

The Ecological Logic of Fertility Evolution and the Long-term Trends of Population Growth

作　　者：丁金宏[1] 耿文均 毛仁俊 程晨[1] DING Jinhong;GENG Wenjun;MAO Renjun;CHENG Chen(Institute of Population Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241

出　　处：《人口与经济》2022年第1期26-41,共16页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“胡焕庸线稳定性与中国人口均衡发展战略研究”(18ZDA132)。

摘　　要：人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题,将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员,按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型,以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路,探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来,全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、第二次生育率转变,全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式;在计划生育政策的推动下,我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。极限替代生育率是生育率演变的长期目标,但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平,这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历,预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化;世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近其容量极限,并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制,达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人口容量,同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为65亿人和12亿人。研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指标——人口增长惯性系数,它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比,相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。The long-term process of population growth always makes confusion and leads to debate.Instead of explaining the short-term population change with specific socio-economic factors,the authors take human population as the ordinary one in the eco-system and construct a new population growth model which aims at researching the general pattern of fertility transition and exploring the trend of population growth in the long run.Within the Eco-P model,population growth is led by the replacement fertility endogenously and checked by the capacity exogenously.The population has undergone or undergoing the first or second round of fertility transition since the industrial revolution.The fertility evolution patterns of the world can be aggregated into four:Europe and America,Asia-Africa-Latin America,Sub-Saharan Africa,and East Asia.Under the promotion of family planning policy,China has experienced two fertility rate changes in just 30 years.Extreme replacement fertility is the long-term goal of fertility evolution,but which have been fallen below this replacement level by some countries.This may become a common experience across countries,which would indicated that an increasingly explicit constraint on population capacity.Driven by the growth momentum,populations of the world and some major countries are about to break through the capacity and to reach the maximum,thereafter the population will go back to the capacity by shrinking negative growth rate,while the fertility rate will return to the modern replacement TFR as well.According to the trends,the authors simulate that the world population will decrease to the sustainable capacity of about 6.5 billion while China population will decrease to 1.2 billion.We designed a new index population momentum coefficient(PMC)as the ratio of TFR to real-time replacement TFR,actually the ratio of birth rate to death rate.Functionally comparable to the commonly used population momentum factor,PMC shows much more convenience and data availability.

关 键 词：生育率演变 替代生育率 人口容量 生态学逻辑 人口惯性 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]