基于技术成熟度的确信可靠性分配方法  

Belief reliability allocation method based on technology readiness

作　　者：陈志聪 康锐[1,2] 祖天培 张清源 CHEN Zhicong;KANG Rui;ZU Tianpei;ZHANG Qingyuan(School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Yunnan Innovation Institute,Beihang University,Kunming 650051,China;School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191 [2]北京航空航天大学云南创新研究院,云南昆明650051 [3]北京航空航天大学航空科学与工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2022年第1期327-337,共11页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：科学挑战计划(TZ2018007)资助课题。

摘　　要：可靠性分配是在产品设计阶段完成,以保证系统指标满足要求的一项重要工程活动。现有基于概率测度的可靠性分配方法分配至单元的指标无法在小样本条件下进行验证。为此,提出一种以不确定随机系统为对象、以确信可靠度为核心的可靠性分配方法。该方法以技术成熟度为工具,实现系统的单元的类别的划分和可靠性机会成本函数的构造,进而提出系统确信可靠度优化分配模型及其求解算法,实现了最小成本下系统可靠性指标的合理分配。以船舶双燃料供气系统为例,开展了确信可靠性分配工作,验证了方法的有效性。Reliability allocation is an important engineering activity completed in the product design stage to ensure that the system indicators meet the requirements. The existing reliability allocation method using probability measures to assign indicators to the unit cannot be verified under a small sample condition. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a reliability allocation method centered on belief reliability for uncertain random system. This method uses technology maturity as a tool to realize the classification of system units and the construction of reliability opportunity cost functions, and further proposes the system belief reliability optimization allocation model and its solution algorithm to achieve a reasonable allocation of system reliability indicators at the minimum cost. Taking the marine dual-fuel gas supply system as an example, the work of belief reliability allocation was carried out to verify the effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：可靠性分配 确信可靠性理论 不确定随机系统 技术成熟度 可靠性机会成本函数 优化分配模型 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]