辽宁省农作物生长季降水量的变化及其满足度与干旱风险度  

Precipitation Variation,Precipitation Satisfaction and Drought Risk Degree in Growth Season of Crops in Liaoning Province

作　　者：谢华光[1] XIE Huaguang(Chaoyang Meteorological Bureau,Chaoyang,Liaoning 122000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁朝阳122000

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2022年第1期131-138,共8页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：科技部农业科技成果转化项目“农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用”(05ESN217400412)。

摘　　要：【目的】探明辽宁省农作物生长季降水量的变化及其满足度与干旱风险度,为辽宁省农业产业结构调整、规避干旱风险和农业生产管理提供参考。【方法】利用辽宁省3个气候区具有代表性气象监测站1951-2020年的降水和气温数据,采用气候诊断分析方法,选用积分湿润指数及其干湿指数研究降水量对农作物生长季的满足程度、干旱变化特征及干旱风险程度。【结果】1951-2020年辽宁省农作物生长季降水量呈显著减少趋势,1979/1980年发生减少突变,突变后平均减少约60.00 mm,其中辽东、辽中和辽西分别减少82.0 mm、59.0 mm和38.0 mm;农作物生长季降水量满足程度呈下降趋势,1979/1980年发生下降突变,突变后平均下降15.6%,其中辽东、辽中和辽西分别下降18.6%、17.1%和11.0%;农作物生长季干湿指数呈极显著递减趋势,1979/1980年发生减小突变,平均减少约0.14,其中辽东、辽中和辽西分别减少0.18、0.13和0.10;农作物生长季干旱风险度呈显著上升趋势,升高4.90~8.40百分点,干旱发生的主要时间段在5月(苗期)和9月(成熟期),其干旱程度约升高1个等级。【结论】1951-2020年辽宁省各地区干旱化日趋严重,农作物生长季降水量、降水量满足程度和干湿指数突变后平均减少/下降约60.00 mm、15.6%和0.14,农业结构调整势在必行。【Objective】The precipitation variation,precipitation satisfaction and drought risk degree in growth season of crops are explored to provide a reference for agricultural structure adjustment,drought risk circumvention and agricultural production management in Liaoning Province.【Method】The precipitation satisfaction,drought variation characteristics and drought risk degree in growth season of crops are analysed by using the integral humidity index and arid-wet index based on the precipitation and temperature data from 1951-2020 collected from three representative meteorological monitoring stations in Liaoning Province.【Result】The precipitation shows a significant decrease trend in growth season of crops during 1951~2020.There is sudden change in precipitation in 1979/1980 and the precipitation averagely decreases by 60.00 mm after its sudden change.The precipitation in Eastern Liaoning,Central Liaoning and Western Liaoning decreases by 82.0 mm,59.0 mm and 38.0 mm respectively.The precipitation satisfaction shows a declining trend in growth season of crops and averagely decreases by 15.6% after its sudden change in 1979/1980.The precipitation satisfaction in Eastern Liaoning,Central Liaoning and Western Liaoning decreases by 18.6%,17.1% and 11.0% separately.The arid-wet index shows a very significant declining trend in growth season of crops and averagely decreases by 0.14 after its sudden change in 1979/1980.The arid-wet index in Eastern Liaoning,Central Liaoning and Western Liaoning decreases by 0.18,0.13 and 0.10 respectively.The drought risk degree shows a significant rising trend in growth season of crops and increased by 4.90%~8.40%.The drought occurs in May(seedling stage)and September(maturity stage)mainly and the drought degree about increases by one grade.【Conclusion】The drought trend is on the rise in different regions of Liaoning Province during 1951-2020 because the precipitation,precipitation satisfaction degree and arid-wet index averagely decreases by 60.00 mm,15.6%and 0.14 after sudd

关 键 词：农作物生长季 降水量 降水满足度 干湿指数 干旱风险度 辽宁 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]