基础设施对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易成本的影响研究  

The study of the impact of infrastructure on bilateral trade costs of China and“Belt and Road”countries

作　　者：胡再勇[1] HU Zaiyong(School of International Economics,China Foreign Affairs University,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际经济学院,北京100037

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2022年第1期74-86,共13页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费重大创新项目“美国对华战略转型下的中美经贸关系与中美关系研究”(3162019ZYKA03);北京市社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’基础设施建设的国际贸易效应研究”(18ZGB003)。

摘　　要：在测算中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的时变双边贸易成本的基础上,进一步基于贸易的引力方程和广义矩估计法(GMM)实证分析基础设施及其交互作用对双边贸易成本的影响。研究发现:2003年至2018年,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的平均双边贸易成本虽然有波折起伏,但整体呈下降趋势。在控制距离、人均GDP差额、是否签署自由贸易协定、贸易依存度、两国是否相邻等重要的显著性影响因素的情况下,海运基础设施、陆空运基础设施以及二者的交互作用均能显著降低双边贸易成本,但基础设施交互作用降低双边贸易成本的效果要低于基础设施本身降低双边贸易成本的效果。This paper calculates the time variant bilateral trade costs of China and countries along the“Belt and Road”,and analyzes the infrastructures and their interaction on bilateral trade costs based on the gravity equation and GMM.The research shows that:the average bilateral trade costs of China and countries along“Belt and Road”have been fluctuating,but the overall trend is decreasing from 2003 to 2018.After controlling the significant impacts of distance,the difference of per capita GDP,whether sign a free trade agreement or not,the degree of trade dependence,whether adjacent or not,the study finds that the maritime infrastructure,land and air transport infrastructure and their interaction can significantly reduce the bilateral trade costs,however,the effect of infrastructure interaction on reducing bilateral trade costs is lower than that of infrastructures themselves.

关 键 词：基础设施 一带一路 双边贸易成本 交互作用 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]