中国城市规模分布特征研究--基于2010-2019年普查数据的分析  

Study on the Distribution Characteristics of Urban Size in China:Based on the Census Data from 2010 to 2019

作　　者：陈洁仪 张少华 潘丽群 JIEYI CHEN;SHAOHUA ZHANG;LIQUN PAN(Guangzhou University)

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2022年第1期185-200,共16页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金常规面上项目“中国企业和城市规模分布异化的政策根源、形成机制与效率评估”(批准号72073038),“中国的‘中部迷失’问题:典型事实、形成机理及宏观后果”(批准号71673253);广州市宣传文化人才培养专项经费资助的成果之一

摘　　要：城市规模分布能够度量一个国家城市之间的发育特征和反映该国城市化进程中存在的问题。基于五普、六普和2015—2019年312个城市和自治州常住人口数据,本文运用Zipf回归、首位度指数、空间基尼系数和马尔科夫转移矩阵的方法,测度了中国城市规模的分布特征。研究发现:(1)从城市规模分布的总体特征来看,当前中国城市规模分布较为分散,即低位序的中小城市发育更加突出,大城市发育不够充分;但城市规模分布的变化趋势整体是朝着集中化方向发展,且集中化趋势在放缓。(2)从城市规模分布的区域特征来看,西部地区城市规模发育最为成熟,但集中度呈现下降趋势;东部、中部地区城市规模分布都远低于理想水平,东部地区集中度呈现上升趋势,而中部地区基本保持不变。(3)从城市规模的省域特征来看,绝大部分的省域内部城市结构不理想,有的省域城市体系具有“双核”或“三核”等特征,存在巨大的改善空间。(4)从城市规模分布的结构演化特征来看,中国城市规模是相对稳定的,同时存在着一条由中小城市逐步发展为大城市的成长路径。本文研究对认识当前中国城市化进程和未来中国城市体系格局如何调整有重要的参考价值。with the rapid development of urbanization in China,the distribution of urban scale reflects the development characteristics between cities.Based on the data of the permanent population of 312 cities and autonomous states in fifth and sixth Population Censuses and from 2015 to 2019,this paper measures the distribution characteristics of urban scale in China by using the methods of Zipf regression,urban primacy,spatial Gini coefficient and Markov transfer matrix.The results show that:(1)from the overall characteristics of urban size distribution,the current distribution of urban size in China is relatively scattered,that is,the development of small and medium-sized cities in low order is more prominent,and the development of large cities is not enough.But the trend of urban size distribution is developing towards centralization,and the trend of concentration is slowing down.(2)From the regional characteristics of urban size distribution,the urban scale development in the western region is the most mature,but the concentration is declining.The urban scale distribution in the East and central areas is far lower than the ideal level,but the concentration of the eastern region is on the rise,while the central region remains unchanged.(3)From the perspective of the provincial characteristics of urban scale,most of the provinces have poor urban structure and there is a huge improvement space.(4)From the structural evolution characteristics of urban size distribution,the urban scale of China is relatively stable,and there is a growing path from small and medium-sized cities to big cities.This paper,based on the distribution and evolution of urban scale,puts forward some policy suggestions on how to rationalize the development of urban system pattern in China in the future.

关 键 词：城市规模 Zipf回归 首位度指数 空间基尼系数 马尔科夫转移矩阵 

分 类 号：C912.81[经济管理] F299.2[社会学]