青藏高原草地联户经营对牧民非农就业与收入的影响:基于青海与甘肃牧区调查数据的实证分析  

The impact of multi-household rangeland operation on non-agricultural employment and household income in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:An empirical analysis based on Qinghai and Gansu survey data

作　　者：周雪 董芮彤 秦昌胜 唐增[1] 王丽佳[1] 张岩[1] ZHOU Xue;DONG Ruitong;QIN Changsheng;TANG Zeng;WANG Lijia;ZHANG Yan(State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室/兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《草业科学》2021年第12期2524-2535,共12页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：中国工程院重点咨询项目(2021-HZ-5);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2020-24、lzujbky-2021-kb13)。

摘　　要：联户经营是青藏高原常见的经营方式,通过联户可以节约劳动力。但该经营方式所产生的剩余劳动力是继续留滞牧区成为闲置劳动力,还是向非农部门转移,并通过非农就业提高牧民收入?这一问题在青藏高原仍然缺乏研究。本研究基于甘肃和青海牧区357户牧户调研数据,采用内生转换Probit回归和处理效应模型,研究了联户经营对牧户非农就业和家庭收入的影响。结果表明:联户经营可有效促进牧户非农就业,并通过增加牧民非农收入显著提高家庭收入水平(P<0.01),但作为一种自发组织存在,联户经营具有较强的不稳定性。本研究建议,应加强优化牧民合作组织行为,正规化牧民合作组织,提升规模效益;推动牧区非农产业发展,增加适宜非农工作岗位。The multiple household operations of rangeland is common in the pastoral area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and it is widely believed that this operation can save management labor.However,little is known about whether the released labor is laid aside or transferred to non-farm employment leading to increase in household income.None of the previous studies have explored this issue in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on survey data of 357 herders collected from the pastoral areas of Qinghai and Gansu provinces,this study analyzed the impact of multiple household operations on non-agricultural employment and household income using the endogenous switching probit(ESP)regression and treatment effect model(TEM).The empirical results show that multiple household operations can effectively promote non-agricultural employment and significantly increase household income(P<0.01).But as a spontaneous organization exists,the management of many families has strong instability.Our results suggest the necessity to strengthen and optimize the behavior of herders’cooperative organizations and formalize herders’cooperative organizations to achieve economies of scale.Promoting the development of non-agricultural industries and increasing suitable non-agricultural employment positions are also very important to pastoral areas.

关 键 词：牧户非农就业 联户经营 家庭收入 内生转换Probit回归 处理效应模型 反事实框架 影响机理 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] F323.8