云南健康产业系统动力学模型研究  

Study on the system dynamics model of Yunnan health industry

作　　者：于博 韩跃红[2] 孟庆红[1] 常浩娟 章涤凡 YU Bo;HAN Yue-hong;MENG Qing-hong;CHANG Hao-juan;ZHANG Di-fan(Yunnan University of Chinese Medicine,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China;Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]云南中医药大学,云南昆明650500 [2]昆明理工大学,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2022年第2期20-25,共6页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：云南省省院省校教育合作人文社科资助项目(SYSX201912);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队科研资助项目(2020tdxmy08);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目(2020CX03);云南省高校科技创新团队支持计划-云南省高校中医药产业发展与促进科技创新团队。

摘　　要：[目的]研究健康产业系统结构,建立云南健康产业系统模型,对云南健康产业发展进行政策模拟。[方法]基于系统动力学模型,建立健康产业系统关系图和流图,根据云南省2013-2018年健康产业相关历史数据,构建云南健康产业系统动力学模型。[结果]模型对健康产业的模拟值和实际值平均绝对百分误差为4.8%,为精度预测。预测2025年云南健康产业规模可达5695.78亿元。通过模型的政策模拟发现,提高政策影响系数到2,健康产业的产值可以提升98.22亿元。[结论]健康产业系统动力学模型能够较好地模拟和预测云南健康产业发展,通过政策的变化来促进健康产业的发展。Objective To study the structure of health industry system,establish system model of Yunnan health industry,and conduct policies simulation on the development of it.Methods Based on the system dynamics model,establish health industry system relationship diagram and flow diagram,and construct Yunnan health industry system dynamics model based on the historical data of health industry in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2018.Results The model’s average absolute percentage error of simulated and actual values of health industry was 4.8%,which was precision forecast.It predicts that the scale of Yunnan’s health industry will reach 569.578 billion yuan in 2025.Through the policy simulation of the model,it is found that increasing the policy impact coefficient to 2 can increase the output value of the health industry by 9.822 billion yuan.Conclusions The health industry system dynamics model can better simulate and predict the development of health industry of Yunnan,and promote the development of health industry through policy changes.

关 键 词：健康产业 系统动力学 预测 政策模拟 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]