全球人口变局、影响及中国应对  

Global Demographic Changes,Impact and China’s Response

作　　者：刘媛 熊柴 Liu Yuan;Xiong Chai

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院经济学研究所 [2]中国政法大学商学院经济系

出　　处：《经济学家》2022年第1期26-35,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学探索”(16ZDA241);清华大学自主科研项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学探索”(20165080065)。

摘　　要：人口问题是基础性、全局性和战略性问题。伴随经济社会发展,全球人口再生产方式正在发生深刻变化,进而导致全球人口发展迎来大变局:全球人口或在本世纪下半叶进入负增长,人类社会逐渐从青年走向中老年,地区人口格局正发生重大变化。在人口对经济社会的巨大反作用下,全球经济将逐渐从高增长走向中低增长常态;全球消费结构将发生深刻改变,健康需求和财富管理需求日趋上升;全球政治经济格局面临深度调整,中国、印度、非洲等力量日趋上升。由于长期实行的计划生育政策的影响,中国人口少子化老龄化快速深化,总人口临近见顶,远期人口总量或急剧萎缩,建议从积极应对老龄化、提升经济增长效率、统筹区域发展、促进双循环等方面积极应对相关挑战和机遇。Population is a fundamental,overall and strategic issue.With the development of economy and society,the mode of global population reproduction is undergoing profound changes,which leads to great changes in global population development:global population may enter negative growth in the second half of this century,human society is gradually moving from youth to middle and old age,and regional population pattern is undergoing major changes.Under the huge reaction of population to economy and society,the global economy will gradually move from high growth to medium and low growth;The global consumption structure will change profoundly,and the demand for health and wealth management will increase day by day;The global political and economic structure is facing deep adjustment,and China,India,Africa and other forces are on the rise.Due to the long-term implementation of birth control,China’s population is characterized by fewer children and aging.The total population will reach its peak in recent years,and the long-term population will shrink sharply.It is recommended to actively respond to related challenges and opportunities in terms of actively responding to aging,improving the efficiency of economic growth,coordinating regional development,and promoting dual cycles.

关 键 词：全球人口变局 经济社会发展 中国应对 

分 类 号：F119.9[经济管理—国际贸易]