全球主权债务风险:表现形式、风险度量与传导机制  

Global Sovereign Debt Risk:Manifestation,Risk Measurement and Transmission Mechanism

作　　者：王学凯 Wang Xue-kai

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《经济学家》2022年第1期56-65,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“防范金融风险与稳定经济增长关系研究”(20CJY063)。

摘　　要：伴随全球宽松政策,主权债务风险有所上升。外债危机和政府债务危机是主权债务危机的表现形式,诱发危机的原因有所差异。本文基于"外债负债率—政府负债率"视角,将全球主权债务风险分为四种类型,发现多数发达国家可能爆发政府债务危机,少数新兴国家可能爆发外债危机,中国的外债风险和政府债务风险都比较小。如果爆发全球主权债务危机,将通过国际资本流动、进出口贸易、价格波动等多个渠道向中国传导。中国应积极应对,特殊时期可启动"盯住美元"的汇率政策,设置政府负债红线,做好通胀和通缩预期管理。With global easing policy,risk of sovereign debt has increased.External debt crisis and government debt crisis are manifestations of sovereign debt crisis,and causes of the crisis are different.Based on the perspective of"leverage of external debt and government debt",this paper divides global sovereign debt risk into four types.The paper finds that most developed countries may blow up government debt crisis,a few emerging countries may face with external debt crisis,and China’s foreign debt risk and government debt risk are relatively small.If global sovereign debt crisis breaks out,it will be transmitted to China through international capital flowing,import and export trading,and price fluctuating.China should take some active measures,such as keeping RMB exchange rate related to US dollar in special periods,setting red line for government debt,and managing inflation and deflation expectations.

关 键 词：主权债务风险 外债危机 政府债务危机 风险传导 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F831[经济管理—世界经济]