税收征管与企业对外投资:来自“金税工程三期”的证据  

Tax Administration and Firm Foreign Investment:Evidence from Gold Tax Project Ⅲ

作　　者：刘铠豪 Liu Kaihao

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共经济与公共政策研究中心 [2]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2021年第12期37-57,共21页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“出口扩张与健康:理论分析与中国经验”(71903111);中国博士后科学基金第13批特别资助(站中)项目“国际贸易与家庭福利:理论与中国经验”(2020T130379);中国博士后科学基金第65批面上资助项目“税收负担与企业出口表现:理论与中国经验”(2019M652414);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“环境规制政策能否助力‘健康中国·健康山东’?——来自‘两控区’政策的证据”(19CQXJ16)的资助。

摘　　要：近些年来,我国对外投资规模迅猛增长,税收征管强度也在不断提升。那么,税收征管是否推动了中国企业的对外投资行为呢?鉴于鲜有文献探讨这一极具现实意义的话题,本文利用"金税工程三期"政策上线这一提高税收征管能力的准自然实验,采用双重差分法首次实证检验了税收征管对企业对外投资行为的影响作用。研究发现:"金税工程三期"这一增加企业纳税遵从度、促进"应收尽收"的税收征管政策冲击显著地提高了企业对外投资的可能性、增加了企业对外投资规模,并且这一结论在引入更多控制变量并排除同期其他政策干扰、安慰剂检验、更换样本周期、倾向得分匹配分析等情况下依旧稳健。潜在的影响机制分析发现,"金税工程三期"这一税收征管政策冲击增加了企业的避税动机,表现为企业偏好于向税率低的东道国进行投资。异质性检验结果显示,"金税工程三期"这一税收征管政策冲击对企业对外投资行为的影响作用在不同对外投资事件类型、不同所有制类型的企业、不同地区、不同行业之间存在明显差异。最后,依据本文结论提出了积极落实减税降费政策、适度地提升银行业竞争水平的政策建议。In recent years, the scale of China’s foreign investment has been increasing rapidly, and the intensity of tax administration also has been improving constantly. Therefore, does tax administration drive Chinese firms to invest abroad? In view that few studies focus on the topic of great practical significance, this paper employ the quasi natural experiment of Gold Tax Project Ⅲ which actually improves the ability to tax administration, and made the first attempt to systematically explore the impact of tax administration on firm foreign investment behavior by using difference in difference analysis. Our main finding is that the exogenous policy shock of Gold Tax Project Ⅲ that actually increases firm taxpayer compliance and collects all due taxes significantly increases the possibility of firm foreign investment, and significantly increases the scale of firm foreign investment. Moreover, the coefficient of interest passes the multiple robustness tests, including introducing more control variables to baseline regression and excluding the interference effect of relevant other policies during the sample period, placebo test, replacing sample period, propensity score matching analysis, etc. The potential mechanism analysis finds that the tax administration policy shock of Gold Tax Project Ⅲ increases the motivation of tax avoidance, showing that firms prefer to invest in the host country with low tax rate. Furthermore, the heterogeneity test indicates that the impacts of the tax administration policy shock of Gold Tax Project Ⅲ on firm foreign investment behavior are heterogeneous across different types of foreign investment events, different ownerships, different regions, and different kinds of industries. Finally, based on our main finding, we bring forward related policy suggestions, including actively implementing tax and fee reduction policy, and moderately improving the level of competition in the banking sector.

关 键 词：金税工程三期 税收征管 纳税遵从度 企业对外投资行为 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]