博弈论融合权重-短板理论在堤防安全综合评价中的应用  

Application of game theory fusion weight and short-board theory in comprehensive evaluation of dike engineering safety

作　　者：张清明[1,2] 徐帅 汪自力[1,2] ZHANG Qingming;XU Shuai;WANG Zili(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Research Center on Levee Safety Disaster Prevention,MWR,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Yellow River Water Resources Protection Scientific Research Institute,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450003 [3]黄河水资源保护科学研究院,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2022年第1期61-65,共5页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

基　　金：水利重大科技问题研究专项(201911);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2019-15、HKY-JBYW-2020-31)。

摘　　要：堤防工程是抵御洪水、保障人民生命财产安全的重要防洪工程之一。为掌握堤防工程安全状况,本文构建了包含堤身土质特性、堤身隐患、堤基结构、除险加固措施、洪水特性及河势变化等因素的多层次多目标的综合评价指标体系。利用博弈论思想将层次分析法(AHP)与熵值法进行优化组合来确定指标的融合权重,兼顾了赋权专家的主观意见和评价指标的客观性,并引入基于短板理论的综合指数法,利用对数函数在指标崩溃时体现其短板效应,通过非线性分等定级进行堤防安全状况评价。工程实例分析表明权重的确定科学合理,可为堤防工程安全综合评价提供可靠依据。Dike engineering is one of the important flood control projects to resist floods and ensure the safety of people’s lives and property.A multi-level and multi-objective comprehensive evaluation index system is established in the paper,which includes factors such as soil properties of dike,hidden dangers of dike,dike base structure,risk removal and reinforcement measures,flood characteristics,river regime change,etc.in order to grasp the safety situation of dike engineering.The game theory thought is utilized to optimize and combine analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method.The subjective opinions of the empowered experts and the objectivity of the evaluation indicators are considered comprehensively.The comprehensive index method based on the short-board theory is introduced.The logarithmic function is utilized to reflect the short-board effect during index collapse.The safety of dike is evaluated by non-linear grading.The analysis of an engineering example shows that the weights are determined scientifically and rationally,thereby providing reliable basis for comprehensive evaluation of dike engineering safety.

关 键 词：堤防工程 安全评价 博弈论 短板理论 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]