江西省山区河流水文气象分析及洪水预报研究  

Analysis of Hydrometeorology and Flood Forecast of Mountain River in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：朱龙辉 黎良辉[1] 韩会明 胡闽 ZHU Longhui;LI Lianghui;HAN Huiming;HU Min(College of Architectural Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi,China;Jiangxi Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,Jiangxi,China;Poyang Lake Hydro Project Construction Office of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330046,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学建筑工程学院,江西南昌330031 [2]江西省水利科学院,江西南昌330029 [3]江西省鄱阳湖水利枢纽建设办公室,江西南昌330046

出　　处：《水力发电》2022年第2期29-35,共7页Water Power

基　　金：江西省水利厅科技项目(201921YBKT07,202224ZDKT06)。

摘　　要：利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验和小波分析等方法,分析江西山区河流南潦河流域1960年~2018年的水文气象要素的趋势特征、突变特征以及周期特征,并基于HEC-HMS模型对流域内发生的11场次洪水进行了精度评定。结果表明,研究区降雨量和气温整体上分别以36.9 mm/10a、0.24℃/10a的速率上升,降雨量在1977年、1990年和2011年发生过突变,并存在35 a的主周期和4、12 a的次周期;气温于2011年发生过突变,44 a的周期变化贯穿整个研究时段;11场次洪水过程模拟结果合格率为81.8%,经评定达到了乙级标准,可为南潦河流域防洪减灾工作提供参考。Based on the collected data from 1960 to 2018 in Nanliao River Basin,the linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,sliding t-test and wavelet analysis are used to analyze the trend characteristics,mutation characteristics and periodic characteristics of hydrometeorological elements in Nanliao River Basin,a mountain river basin in Jiangxi Province,and the model of HEC-HMS is used to precisely assess 11 floods in the basin.The results show that the rainfall and temperature increase at the rate of 36.9 mm/10a and 0.24℃/10a respectively in the study area.The rainfall is mutated in 1977,1990 and 2011 respectively,and there are the significant period about 35 a and the sub-period about 4 a and 12 a.The temperature mutation occurs in 2011 and the periodic variation for 44 a is throughout the research period.The qualified coefficient of simulation results of 11 flood processes reaches 81.8%which satisfies the standard of Class B,so it can provide references for the flood control and disaster mitigation in Nanliao River Basin.

关 键 词：洪水预报 水文气象 HEC-HMS 小波分析 山区河流 南潦河流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]