江西暴雨气候特征及降水极值重现期分析  

Study on Climate Characteristics of Heavy Rain and Its Reappearing Period of Extreme Precipitation in Jiangxi

作　　者：唐传师 甘瑞杰 程宗佩 马锋敏[2] Tang Chuanshi;Gan Ruijie;Cheng Zongpei;Ma Fengmin(Nanchang Municipal Meteorological Service,Nanchang 330038,China;Jiangxi Provincial Climate Center,Nanchang 330096,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌市气象局,江西南昌330038 [2]江西省气候中心,江西南昌330096

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2021年第3期164-171,共8页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(编号:CMAYBY2020-069);江西省气象局预报员专项“2020年7月7日南昌市短时强降水过程漏报分析”.

摘　　要：利用1961-2020年江西省83个国家气象观测站日雨量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、年最大值法以及耿贝尔Ι型极值分布理论,对江西年平均暴雨日数、暴雨降水量、暴雨贡献率、暴雨强度等的变化特征以及不同重现期的降水极值进行了分析。结果表明:1)江西各地年均暴雨日数呈西南向东北递增分布;大部分地区年暴雨日数呈增加趋势,并呈现西部和南部增加略慢,东部和东北部快速增加态势;尤其是江西东北地区既是暴雨高发中心,同时也是暴雨日数增长中心。2)江西各地年平均暴雨降水量和暴雨贡献率均呈东北多、西南少分布;景德镇和上饶为暴雨降水量和暴雨贡献率高值区也是增长中心;赣州北部和吉安南部为暴雨降水量和暴雨贡献率低值区,但呈现明显增长趋势。3)江西各地平均暴雨强度呈现较明显的北部大、南部小的分布特征;暴雨强度呈现西部增强、东部减弱的趋势。4)江西不同重现期的日雨量极值呈现东北大、西南小的分布,高值区主要分布在上饶、景德镇和抚州一带,低值区主要在吉安南部和赣州。Based on the daily rainfall data of 83 observation stations in Jiangxi from 1961 to 2020,the climate characteristics of rainstorm and its reappearing period of extreme precipitation were analyzed by using the linear tendency estimation method,annual maximum method and Gumbel type I extreme value distribution theory.The results indicated that:1)the annual mean rainstorm days in Jiangxi province presented an increasing trend from south-west regions to north-east regions.The annual rainstorm days in most areas exhibited an increasing trend,with a slightly slow increase in the west and south,and a rapid increase in the east and northeast.In particular,the northeast of Jiangxi province is not only the high incidence center of rainstorm,but also the growth center of rainstorm days.2)The annual average rainstorm precipitation and the rainstorm contribution rate in Jiangxi province exhibited more in the northeast and less in the southwest.Jingdezhen and Shangrao were the high value areas and growth centers of rainstorm precipitation and rainstorm contribution rate.The north of Ganzhou and the south of Ji'an were low value areas of rainstorm precipitation and rainstorm contribution rate,which showed an obvious growth trend.3)The average rainstorm intensity in Jiangxi was greater in the north and smaller in the south.The rainstorm intensity increased in the west and decreased in the east.4)The daily rainfall extreme values of different reappearing periods in Jiangxi showed a large distribution in the northeast and a small distribution in the southwest.The high value areas were mainly distributed in Shangrao,Jingdezhen and Fuzhou,and the low value areas were mainly in the south of Ji'an and Ganzhou.

关 键 词：暴雨 极值重现期 气候特征 江西 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]