流化床煤气化过程参数不确定性量化  

Uncertainty quantification of fluidized bed coal gasification process parameters

作　　者：吴士龙 WU Shi-long(Henan Polytechnic University,School of Energy Science and Engineering,Jiaozuo Henan 454000)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学能源科学与工程学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《天津化工》2022年第1期92-95,共4页Tianjin Chemical Industry

摘　　要：本文研究了煤气化过程操作参数的不确定性对天然气产量的影响。煤气化是最可行和实用的清洁煤发电技术之一。通过建立Kriging模型,然后在该模型的基础上进行全局灵敏度分析和蒙特卡洛模拟,对参数的不确定性进行量化分析,结果表明空气对天然气产量的影响最大,参数在不同概率密度函数情况下,天然气产量达到2.9(m^(3)/kg)煤的概率不同。This paper studies the influence of uncertainty of coal gasification parameters on natural gas production.Coal gasification is one of the most feasible and practical clean coal power generation technologies.Through the establishment of Kriging model, and then on the basis of the model for global sensitivity analysis and monte carlo simulation, the quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of parameters, the results show that the influence of the air to gas production is the largest, parameters under the condition of different probability density function, 2.9(m^(3)/kg) of coal gas production rate is different.

关 键 词：Kriging代理模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 不确定性量化 

分 类 号：TK91[动力工程及工程热物理] TQ547.7[化学工程—煤化学工程]