基于CA-Markov模型的楚雄市土地利用动态监测及预测研究  

Research on Dynamic Monitoring and Prediction of Land Use in Chuxiong City Based on CA-Markov Model

作　　者：裴子誉 白家雪 陆文榆 许永涛 PEI Zi-yu;BAI Jia-xue;LU Wen-yu(School of Resources,Environment and Chemistry,Chuxiong Normal University,Chuxiong,Yunnan 675000)

机构地区：[1]楚雄师范学院资源环境与化学学院,云南楚雄675000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2022年第2期72-77,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：云南省高等学校大学生创新创业训练计划(S201911391027)。

摘　　要：运用RS、GIS等技术手段对楚雄市2002、2010、2018年3期的遥感影像进行分类,将土地利用类型划分为建设用地、耕地、林地、水体和未利用地,并根据土地利用现状图对楚雄市的用地结构变化进行分析;在此基础上运用IDRISI软件构建基于人工神经网络的CA-Markov模型,以2002、2010年土地利用状况为基础数据模拟2018年的土地利用情况,在精度检验符合要求后最终模拟2026年的土地利用情况。结果表明,楚雄市2002—2018年土地利用变化中耕地和建设用地是主导地类,但在不同研究时段变化具有差异性。林地转移到耕地和建设用地是楚雄市主要土地利用转移类型。2010年后政府出台政策支持乡镇耕地发展,个别乡镇在此期间耕地与建设用地得到了大力发展。CA-Markov模型对楚雄市2018年的土地利用情况模拟预测精度验证的Kappa系数为0.71。根据预测结果2026年楚雄市土地利用变化中耕地和建设用地仍是主导地类。RS and GIS were used to classify the remote sensing images of Chuxiong City in 2002,2010 and 2018,and classify the land use types into construction land,arable land,forest land,water bodies and unused land,and the change of land use structure in Chuxiong City was also analysed based on the current land use map.On this basis,the CA-Markov model based on artificial neural network was constructed using IDRISI software to simulate the land use situation in 2018 with the land use status in 2002 and 2010 as the base data,and finally simulate the land use situation in 2026 after the accuracy check met the requirements.The results showed that the arable land and construction land were the dominant land use categories in the land use change in Chuxiong City during 2002-2018,but the change had variability in different study periods.Transfer of forest land to arable land and construction land was the main type of land use transfer in Chuxiong City.The government introduced policies to support the development of arable land in townships after 2010,and individual townships had experienced strong development of arable land and construction land during this period.The Kappa coefficient for the accuracy verification of the CA-Markov model's land use simulation prediction for Chuxiong City in 2018 was 0.71.According to the prediction results in 2026,arable land and construction land will still be the dominant land use types in Chuxiong City.

关 键 词：土地利用 动态监测 预测 CA-Markov模型 楚雄市 

分 类 号：S127[农业科学—农业基础科学]