我国第七次人口普查之省市人口总量数据质量分析  

Quality Analysis of the Total Population Data of the 7^(th) NPC of China

作　　者：江炎骏 周晓津[2] JIANG Yan-jun;ZHOU Xiao-jin(Dongguan Administrative Institute,Donguan 523083,Guangdong,China;Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences,Guangzhou 510410,China)

机构地区：[1]东莞行政学院,广东东莞523083 [2]广州市社会科学院,广州510410

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期114-127,共14页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(20BTJ055)“基于大数据的人口统计调查方法与应用研究”。

摘　　要：人口普查数据质量评测是人口统计学研究的重要议题。国内关于普查人口总量数据的质量研究文献较少,对省市级人口总量数据评测更为稀少。本文并没有从直接的人口数据入手,而是利用省市移动用户数量的饱和均值刚性,依据大数定律和夹挤定理对省级区域和地级市层次的人口总量数据进行测定和分析。研究发现:2020年我国七普省级区域的人口普查常住人口数据质量是比较高的,标准化之后的省市数据质量大多在95%以上;人口净流入省份仍然有较多的"应计未计"常住性人口,人口流出大省则有较多的"已计外流"常住人口;以广东省为例的各地级市人口普查数据质量也大为提高,未来人口数据人为操作余地很小。东部沿海外来劳动力流入将面临持续下降态势,但其面临的教育、医疗、住房和养老压力低于流出地;保持每年1000万新出生人口规模应成为目标;提出应对我国人口及劳动力变化的六点系统性对策建议。Quality evaluation of census data is an important topic in demographic research.Studies on the quality of census population data are few in China,and the evaluation of provincial and municipal population data is even rarer.This paper does not start with the direct population data,but uses the saturated mean rigidity of the number of mobile users in provinces and cities,and measures and analyzes the total population data of provincial,regional and prefecture level cities according to the law of large numbers and pinch theorem.The results show that:in the seventh national population census(the 7^(th)NPC)in 2020,the quality of census data of permanent residents in provincial levels is relatively high,and the quality rate of standardized provincial data is mostly more than 95%.There are still more permanent residents in the provinces with net inflow of population,while there are more permanent residents in the provinces with large outflow of population.Taking Guangdong Province as an example,the quality of census data in various cities has been greatly improved,and there is no room for human operation of population data in the future.The inflow of migrant labor in the eastern coastal areas will continue to decline,but the pressure of education,medical care,housing and pension in these areas is lower than that in the outflow areas.Maintaining the annual population of 10 million new births should be a goal.Six systematic countermeasures are proposed to cope with the population and labor force changes in China.

关 键 词：人口大数据 第七次人口普查 饱和均值刚性 人口流动 劳动力人口 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]