厦门市新型冠状病毒肺炎境外输入确诊人数的预测模型构建和评价  

Construction and evaluation of a statistical model for COVID-19 imported cases in Xiamen

作　　者：张怡盾[1] 童逸琦 黄仕杰[1] 黄思颖 庄福振 Zhang Yidun;Tong Yiqi;Huang Shijie;Huang Siying;Zhuang Fuzhen(Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen 361000, China;Xiamen Institute of Data Intelligence, Xiamen 361000, China)

机构地区：[1]厦门市疾病预防控制中心,福建厦门361000 [2]中科(厦门)数据智能研究院,福建厦门361000

出　　处：《中国医院统计》2021年第6期513-517,共5页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

基　　金：福建省科技厅引导性项目(2020D019)。

摘　　要：目的分析厦门市境外疫情输入风险,为公共卫生部门防范境外输入病例传播提供数据支撑;评估医疗资源未来是否会出现紧缺,为本地指挥部门的行政决策提供参考依据。方法构建了一个统计模型对厦门市境外输入病例进行预测。因厦门初始样本数量较少,模型首先根据广州的境外输入情况进行初始化,再基于厦门每日的疫情情况进行拟合。考虑到入境政策不断变化和各个国家(地区)疫情的快速发展,构建并维护字典来动态计算不同国家旅客的入境确诊风险权重,最后采用指数平滑法对模型进行参数更新。结果2020年3月23日至12月31日,厦门市累计报告境外输入新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例和无症状感染者277例,模型预测257例,F1值达到77.3%。结论该统计模型具备较好的预测能力。Objective To analyze the risk of imported COVID-19 cases in Xiamen,and to provide data support for the public health department to prevent the spread of imported cases;to assess the future shortage of medical resources in Xiamen,and to provide a reference basis for administrative decisions.Methods A statistical model was constructed to predict imported cases in Xiamen.Due to the small number of initial samples in Xiamen,the model was first initialized based on the overseas import situation of Guangzhou,and then fitted based on the daily epidemic situation in Xiamen.Considering the constant change of entry policies and the rapid development of epidemic in various countries(regions),a dictionary was constructed and maintained to dynamically calculate the risk weights of travelers from different countries.Finally,exponential smoothing method was used to update the parameters of the model.Results From March 23,2020 to December 31,2020,Xiamen reported a total of 277 imported cases in which asymptomatic infections were included,and 257 cases were predicted by our model.The experimental results showed that the F1-score of our proposed model reached 77.3%.Conclusion The statistical model has good predictive ability.

关 键 词：厦门市 新型冠状病毒 入境确诊人数 预测 指数平滑法 统计模型 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]