BBK指数:原理、应用及启示  

BBK Index:Principle, Application and Enlightenment

作　　者：徐丽娜 王倍倍 郇志坚[2] Xu Lina;Wang Beibei;Huan Zhijian(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University;Urumqi Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学 [2]中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2021年第7期71-83,共13页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：在实施货币政策的过程中,世界各国央行肩负着及时预测当前经济状况的责任,但这一任务通常难以完成,现有较为可行的方法是利用高频经济指标来跟踪经济活动变化。2019年芝加哥联储结合已有文献构造了一个全新的美国经济活动"大数据"指数(BBK指数),该指数可以用来实时跟踪美国的经济和通货膨胀周期,并预测每月的实际GDP增长。本文经过较为长期的跟踪学习发现,BBK指数确实具有良好的经济周期预测能力,因此本文对BBK指数的构造方法、指标选取及指标优势进行介绍,旨在为构建中国的BBK指数提供参考。In the process of implementing monetary policy, central banks around the world usually shoulder the responsibility of predicting current economic conditions in a timely manner, but this task is usually difficult to complete. The existing more feasible method is to use high-frequency economic indicators to track changes in economic activities. In 2019, the Chicago Fed combined existing literature to construct a brand-new “Big Data” index of US economic activity(BBK Index), which can be used to track the US economy and inflation cycle in real time, and predict monthly real GDP growth. After a relatively long-term follow-up study, this article found that the BBK index does have good business cycle forecasting capabilities. Therefore, this article introduces the construction method, index selection, and index advantages of the BBK index, aiming to provide a reference for constructing China’s BBK index.

关 键 词：BBK指数 大数据预测 经济周期 

分 类 号：F827.12[经济管理—财政学] F822