基于动态贝叶斯网络的船舶电力推进系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Ship Electric Propulsion System Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

作　　者：韩哲鹏 张笛[2,3] HAN Zhepeng;ZHANG Di(Wuhan University of Technology,Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan 430063,China;Wuhan University of Technology,School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan 430063,China;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院,武汉430063 [3]国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,武汉430063

出　　处：《船舶工程》2021年第11期118-124,共7页Ship Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFE0197600,2017YFC0804900,2017YFC0804904);湖北省自然科学基金重点类项目(2019CFA039)。

摘　　要：采用动态贝叶斯网络模型建立考虑多状态设备和维修保养策略的船舶电力推进系统可靠性评估模型。通过设备间的依赖关系和专家打分构建动态贝叶斯网络,并计算系统的可靠性;通过敏感性分析,得到影响系统可靠性的薄弱设备;以航行过程中有维修的传统船舶电力推进系统的可靠性为标准,对航行过程中无维修的海事自主水面船(MASS)电力推进系统的计划性维修保养策略进行研究。研究结果表明:航行过程中有维修可有效保证船舶电力推进系统的安全性;原动机、电动机和发电机是电力推进系统的薄弱环节;可通过缩短计划性维修保养间隔,保证MASS的电力推进系统的安全性。the reliability evaluation model of electric propulsion system is developed using the Dynamic Bayesian Network(DBN),which considers the multi-states equipment and maintenance policy.The DBN of electric propulsion system is established and the reliability is calculated based on the dependency relationship between devices and expert scoring method.Through the sensitivity analysis,the weak link in the system is obtained.Based on the reliability of the conventional ship electric propulsion system,this paper studies the schedule maintenance policy for the electric propulsion system of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship(MASS)without maintenance process during navigation.The results show that maintenance process during navigation can effectively guarantee the safety of ship power system.The prime mover,electric motor and generator are the weak links of the electric propulsion system.The safety of the electric propulsion system of MASS can be ensured by shortening the scheduled maintenance interval.

关 键 词：动态贝叶斯网络 多状态分析 可靠性评估 海事自主水面船计划性维修 电力推进系统 

分 类 号：U661.43[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]