基于修正人口发展方程对安徽省人口的预测分析  

Prediction and analysis of population of Anhui Province based on modified population development equation

作　　者：刘庆山 胡学平 来江涛 LIU Qingshan;HU Xueping;LAI Jiangtao(School of Mathematics and Physics,Anqing Normal University,Anqing 246133,China)

机构地区：[1]安庆师范大学数理学院,安徽安庆246133

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2022年第1期1-6,共6页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目(Kj2019A0557);应用统计学专业卓越工程师培养创新项目(2020zyrc089);应用统计学一流本科专业校级建设项目(2019aqnuylzy01)。

摘　　要：从将人口数量分性别计算、将迁移人口改为流动变动人口等方面对宋健人口发展方程进行了修正.结合安徽省实际情况,按照高、中、低3个方案,得到了安徽省人口数量预测的结果.与实际数据相比较,发现其预测的误差较小.对预测的结果进行分析,提出了一些建议.Songjian's population development equation is revised from the aspects of calculating the population by sex,changing the migrant population into the floating population.Combined with the actual situation of Anhui Province,the population of Anhui Province are predicted according to three schemes of high,medium and low.Compared with the actual data,it is found that the prediction error is small.Finally,the prediction results are analyzed and some suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：人口发展方程 ARMA模型 安徽省 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] C921[理学—数学]