京津冀旅游—生态—城镇化耦合协调的时空演进与空间差异  

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Spatial Difference of Tourism-Ecology-Urbanization Coupling Coordination in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：翁钢民[1,2] 唐亦博 潘越 毛娅琪 WENG Gangmin;TANG Yibo;PAN Yue;MAO Yaqi(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,Hebei,China;Research Center of Regional Economic Development,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,中国河北秦皇岛066004 [2]燕山大学区域经济发展研究中心,中国河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《经济地理》2021年第12期196-204,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(19FGLB001);河北省自然科学基金项目(G2020203023);河北省软科学项目(21557625D);秦皇岛市科学技术研究与发展计划(202004A146)。

摘　　要：以京津冀城市群为研究区域,基于旅游—生态—城镇化耦合机理构建评价指标体系,结合探索性空间数据分析、核密度估计、泰尔指数及分解等方法,测算2007—2019年京津冀旅游—生态—城镇化综合发展指数及耦合协调度,并从时空两大角度分析其演化特征。结果表明:①京津冀旅游、生态、城镇化指数表现各异但均保持增长趋势,整体上城镇化指数相对较高并进入提质增效阶段,旅游指数相对较低并进入转型升级阶段,而生态指数则反映出阶段性与时滞性。②三系统处于高耦合、低协调向高耦合、高协调转变的状态,且协调度在时间上由轻度失调向良好协调稳步发展,在空间上“京津保石”形成高值集聚连线,存在一定溢出效应。③核密度曲线显示京津冀协调程度显著提高,空间分布趋于均衡但仍存在“独大城市”,泰尔指数显示空间差异较小但存在扩大趋势,缩小南中北部区域间差异是提升京津冀协调水平的关键。Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research area and based on the coupling mechanism of tourism-ecology-urbanization(TEU), this article constructs its evaluation index system, calculates the development indexes of tourism, ecology and urbanization and their coupling coordination degree, using exploratory spatial data analysis, kernel density estimation, Theil index and decomposition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2007 to2019, and analyzes its evolution characteristics. The results show that: 1) Development indexes of tourism, ecology and urbanization are different,but all maintain the growth trend. On the whole, the urbanization index is relatively high and enters the improvement stage of quality and efficiency, the tourism index is relatively low and enters the stage of transformation and upgrading, while the ecological index shows the characteristics of the stage and time lag. 2) Coupling coordination of TEU system shifts from high coupling-low coordination to high coupling-high coordination, and the coordination degree develops steadily from mild maladjustment to good coordination. High-value agglomeration areas distribute in Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding and Shijiazhuang, and there is a certain spillover effect. 3) The kernel density curve shows that the coordination degree is significantly improved, and the spatial distribution tends to be balanced, but there is still a "dominant city". Theil index shows that the spatial difference is small but has an expanding trend, reducing the regional difference between the south, central and northern is a key point to improve the coordination level of BeijingTianjin-Hebei.

关 键 词：旅游—生态—城镇化 耦合协调度 评价指标体系 京津冀城市群 旅游协同发展 生态环境 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]