天然气市场化进程中储气服务价值变化研究  

Study on the change of gas storage service value in the process of natural gas marketization

作　　者：王盟浩 李森圣 WANG Menghao;LI Sensheng(Department of Natural Gas Economy Research Institute,Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company Post-Doctoral Research Center,Chengdu 610051,China;Natural Gas Economy Research Institute,Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]天然气经济研究所分站西南油气田分公司博士后工作站,四川成都610051 [2]天然气经济研究所西南油气田分公司,四川成都610051

出　　处：《中国矿业》2022年第2期33-39,共7页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司西南油气田分公司科研项目“储气库储气服务产品模式及价格机制优化研究”资助(编号:20200310-01)。

摘　　要：在我国天然气市场化改革的推进下,地下储气库商业化运营时的金融价值会发生相应的变化,其变化方式尚未进行定量研究。因此,本文将天然气市场化程度量化为价格波动性、市场回归性和交易周期三个量化指标,使用最小二乘蒙特卡洛法对天然气市场化改革进程中的储气服务金融价值进行了数值研究。计算结果表明:随着天然气价格波动性的增强,储气服务的金融价值会出现大幅的提升;随着竞争性市场参与者的增加,价格回归性增强,储气服务的金融价值呈现先快速提升,达到一定程度后保持不变的趋势;在价格低回归性条件下,储气服务的金融价值随交易周期出现了不规则变化,在价格高回归性条件下,储气服务的金融价值随交易周期的增大呈降低趋势。从整体上来说,随着天然气市场化程度整体的增加,储气服务的金融价值会出现显著的提升,因此在现阶段的储气库规划与设计中,应该充分考虑天然气市场化改革推进下金融价值的变化情况。With the advancement of China s natural gas market-oriented reform,the financial value of underground gas storage will change correspondingly during the commercial operation,and its change mode has not been quantitatively studied.Therefore,this paper quantifies the degree of natural gas marketization into three quantitative indicators:price volatility,market regression and transaction cycle,and uses the least square Monte Carlo method to numerically study the financial value of gas storage services in the process of natural gas marketization reform.The calculation results show that with the increase of natural gas price volatility,the financial value of gas storage services will increase significantly.With the increase of competitive market participants and the increase of price regression,the financial value of gas storage services shows a trend of rapid increase at first and remain unchanged after reaching a certain degree.Under the condition of low price regression,the financial value of gas storage services changes irregularly with the transaction cycle.Under the condition of high price regression,the financial value of gas storage services decreases with the increase of the transaction cycle.On the whole,with the overall increase of natural gas marketization,the financial value of gas storage services will be significantly improved.Therefore,in the planning and design of gas storage at this stage,the changes of financial value under the promotion of natural gas marketization reform should be fully considered.

关 键 词：地下储气库 储气服务 天然气市场化 价值评估 商业化运营 天然气 金融价值 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]