气候变化背景下黄河流域植被变化及其成因  

Vegetation Changes and Their Causes in the Yellow River Basin under the Background of Climate Change

作　　者：赵倩倩 李建华[1] 张桂琴 石云[1] ZHAO Qianqian;LI Jianhua;ZHANG Guiqin;SHI Yun(School of Geography and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院,银川750021

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2022年第1期157-169,共13页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507704;国家自然科学基金项目41361031、41975115;中国工程院院地合作重大战略研究项目2021NXZD8。

摘　　要：研究黄河流域植被的时空变化及其影响因素,对生态文明建设政策的制定具有重要意义。基于2001~2020年MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)植被指数(Normalized Different Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据集及同期气象数据,运用均值法、一元线性回归、偏相关性分析和回归残差法等方法研究了近20年黄河流域植被时空变化及驱动因素。结果表明:黄河流域NDVI整体呈上升趋势并具有较大的空间异质性,其中黄河中游NDVI增长幅度最大,为0.0496(10 a)^(-1)。生长季受降水和沿黄灌区耕作的影响,西部地区、东南部区域和宁夏平原、河套平原植被指数明显较高;从整个流域来看,降水和温度变化对NDVI的贡献分别为32.6%和15.9%,其中降水对NDVI变化的贡献主要体现在黄河上游(50.7%),而温度的贡献则在黄河下游表现最突出(32.3%);20年来,人类活动和气候变化分别对黄河流域植被变化贡献了78%和22%,其中人类活动贡献率超过80%的区域主要集中在黄土高原中部区域;整个黄河流域NDVI与干旱程度有显著的正相关性,尤其在陇中黄土高原和河东沙区等区域。黄河上游NDVI与改进的帕默尔干旱指数scPDSI的相关性最高,而下游相对较低。Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation in the Yellow River basin and their influencing factors is important to formulate policies for the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)vegetation index(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)data and meteorological observations from 2001 to 2020,this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of vegetation through the mean method,unary linear regression,partial correlation analysis,and multivariate residual trend analysis.The results show that the increased NDVI dominates most of the Yellow River basin but with large spatiotemporal variability.In particular,the largest increased NDVI approaches to 0.0496 per 10 years in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin.In the growing season,areas with significantly positive NDVI increase mainly in the western and southeastern of the Yellow River basin,most evidently in irrigated areas along the Ningxia and Hetao Plain.Both precipitation and temperature play an important role in the NDVI changes for most areas of the Yellow River basin.For the Yellow River basin as a whole,contributions from the precipitation and temperature to the NDVI change approach to 32.6%and 15.9%,respectively.Contributions from the precipitation are mainly found in the upper reaches(50.7%),while those from the temperature are mainly seen in the lower reaches(32.3%).On the other hand,human activities and climate change can account for 78%and 22%of the NDVI changes in the Yellow River basin,respectively.In particular,contributions from human activities are more than 80%in the central region of the Loess Plateau.Meanwhile,the drought is also a key driver to cause the increased NDVI changes in the Loess Plateau in central Gansu and the Hedong sand area(with a correlation of 0.6),which is especially higher in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin.

关 键 词：黄河流域 NDVI 数据 时空变化 气候因子 人类活动 干旱 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]