采用乘数法结合社交软件估计南京市MSM人群规模  

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men in Nanjing using multiplier method based on social software

作　　者：徐园园[1] 朱正平[1] 张敏[1] 吴苏姝[1] 郭璐[1] 李昕[1] 时红杰 XU Yuan-yuan;ZHU Zheng-ping;ZHANG Min;WU Su-shu;GUO Lu;LI Xin;SHI Hong-jie(Department of STD/AIDS Prevention and Treatment,Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科,南京210003

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2022年第1期46-50,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：南京市重点专科项目(传染病控制专科);南京市医学重点科技发展项目(ZKX19050)。

摘　　要：目的估计南京市MSM规模,为艾滋病疫情估计和防治策略制定提供科学依据。方法基于乘数法原理结合Blued社交软件,并同时采用现场调查和网络调查对南京市的MSM规模进行估计,通过男同社交软件Blued的后台统计连续7 d在南京市范围内登录人数的平均值作为记录数(record, r),通过网络和现场调查了解MSM同时期内登录过软件比例的倒数作为乘数(multiplier, m),r与m相乘即为南京市MSM人群规模。结果南京市MSM人群规模估计数为35 138(95%CI:33 847~36 429)人,占全市15~59岁男性人口的比例为1.12%(95%CI:1.08%~1.16%)。不同调查方法间MSM的寻找性伴方式、月收入、近6个月是否发生同性肛交行为、肛交时安全套使用情况、新型毒品使用的构成比差异均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05)。结论利用乘数法并结合男性社交软件的估计结果基本反映了南京市MSM的人群规模,而采用网络调查能发现更多隐蔽的MSM,具有一定的可行性和可信度。Objective The study aimed to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM) in Nanjing, to provide valuable information for estimating the AIDS epidemic, and to develop HIV prevention strategy. Methods An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method and social app technology, and location-based surveys and internet-based surveys were undertaken among MSM. The number of MSM(r) is the average person-times of logging in Blued App in Nanjing region within 7 days. Meanwhile, a survey was conducted among MSM to obtain the proportion of MSM who had logging in the Blued APP during the given period and the reciprocal of the proportion was the multiplier(m). The MSM population size can be estimated by r multiplied by m. Results The population of MSM in Nanjing was estimated to be 35 138(95% CI:33 847-36 429) and corresponded to 1.12% of the adult male population aged from 15 to 59 years in Nanjing(95% CI: 1.08%-1.16%). There were significant differences in ways of finding sexual partners, monthly income, the proportion of anal intercourse in the past 6 months, frequency of condom uses during anal sex and the proportion of recreational drug use among MSM population in different investigation methods(all P<0.05). Conclusion The method to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method and social app technology, and using field surveys and internet-based surveys facilitates reaching the network of MSM including hidden pockets of the group and seems to be feasible and credible.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 规模估计 乘数法 社交软件 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]